A War Week With Central Banks and Nvidia in the Background – March 16, 2026
Good morning, Following a third consecutive down week for the major indices — the S&P 500 declined -1.60% last week — the weekend brought little clarity on how or when the war with Iran may end. Yet this morning, markets are behaving as if something constructive happened. Oil prices are lower and S&P 500 futures are […]
Two Weeks Into War — Why Markets Aren’t Panicking – March 13, 2026
Good morning, The war is approaching the two-week mark—already longer than many (particularly the bulls) expected. Over that period, the S&P 500 Index has declined -2.94%, and the market now sits -4.71% below its all-time high reached six weeks ago. By almost any historical measure of market anxiety, a ~3% decline two weeks into a war […]
War – Jobs Shock – Signals Still Lean Bullish – March 9, 2026
Good morning, Friday’s surprisingly weak employment report—and the stagflation implications that would leave policymakers in a policy straitjacket—produced the worst trading day of the week for equities (S&P 500 -1.33%). With the index finishing the week down -2.01%, there’s a fair argument that a possibly rogue jobs number had a greater market impact than the […]
February 2026 Monthly Markets Update
Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index declined -0.8% in February, but the headline masked broad underlying strength. The equal-weighted S&P 500 gained +3.5%, Large Cap Value rose +2.6%, and the Russell 2000 added +0.8%, as the rotation toward smaller and more value-oriented companies continued. In contrast, Large Cap Growth declined -3.4% and the Nasdaq fell […]
Oil, War Duration, and a Weak Jobs Report – March 6, 2026
Good morning, There is not much in the way of fresh market insight this morning. For now, two variables are largely in control of market performance: the peak price of oil and the duration of the conflict—how high oil goes and how long it stays there. How long the war ultimately last. Both variables appear to have […]
Markets Absorb “Epic Fury” — Early Reaction Muted – March 2, 2026
Good morning, Investors begin this month — and this week — with a deep breath as they attempt to assess “Epic Fury” and its potential market consequences. Near-term fact pattern: Market reaction so far has been measured. European equities are down roughly 2.5% on average. U.S. futures are off about 1% by comparison. There has […]
The Four Pillars of the Rally — An Updated Assessment
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® March 1, 2026 – For much of the past year, the S&P 500 advance has been supported by what I’ve called the Four Pillars of the Rally: In recent weeks, each of these pillars has come under varying degrees of stress. That does not mean the bull market is over. […]
Churn Beneath the Surface – Rising Tail Risks – February 27, 2026
Good morning, Another week of churn beneath the market’s surface, even though the S&P 500 Index goes nowhere, has been the story of the month. While the S&P 500 looks to finish little changed, leadership continued to rotate aggressively. Severe price corrections in pockets of AI-driven technology and communications were offset by strength in the broader market […]
Choppy Waters as Policy and Geopolitics Compete – February 23, 2026
Good morning, Investors began last Friday focused on Iran; by week’s end, attention had shifted to the Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Trump’s global tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Another distraction — and another potential source of near-term volatility. Equities edged modestly higher through a choppy week as investors […]
Markets Prefer Earnings to Escalation – February 20, 2026
Good morning, If equity markets could go more than a week without extraneous distractions from their core long-term value drivers—earnings and macroeconomics—we might better enjoy the benefits of a growing economy in a controlled inflation environment. It’s been just over a week of relatively clear air without much interruption (until yesterday), and the major equity […]
AI: Blessing, Curse, and Market Crosscurrents – February 17, 2026
Good morning, While the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index advanced to a new all-time high last week, most other major U.S. equity indices declined (non-U.S. markets were largely flat). The divergence continues. Much of the week’s selling pressure stemmed from rising concerns about AI-driven disruption — and not just within software. AI-enabled tools were launched […]
Volatility Picks Up, But No Warning Signals Yet – February 13, 2026
Good morning, Week by week, volatility has been edging higher. We’re seeing more frequent 1–2% swings in both directions across the major indices — a noticeable change from the steadier tone that characterized much of last year. Yesterday, U.S. equities tumbled as the tech-led selloff deepened. The S&P 500 fell -1.6%, while the Nasdaq and […]