June 2022 Monthly Letter
It was another difficult month and quarter for markets. This is now the worst first half of the year for developed market equities in over 50 years. To make matters worse, government bonds have also been hit hard so far this year, failing to provide the protection that investors usually look to them for. Rarer […]
A Ray of Sunshine?
July 5, 2022 Good morning, The second half of the year begins in earnest this holiday shortened week, and markets this morning are tracing out price action that has become oh-so-familiar thus far in 2022; weaker equities (futures down a percent), higher Treasury yields (US 10yr +5bps to 2.92% from 2.87% early this morning), and […]
Have A Nice Weekend
July 1, 2022 Good morning, News this morning is bulging with all the dreadful superlatives about the first half – global stocks and bonds have fallen by the most on record, (at least according to Bloomberg data going back to 1990). The S&P 500 Index had its worst first-half in over 50yrs. U.S. fixed income […]
Step One Possibly In Place
June 29, 2022 Good morning, In March and again in May this year, we talked about the four steps that usually make for a market bottom (oversold, rally, retest, breadth thrusts). Both rallies, in March and May, failed at the retest step, and were consequently labeled bear market rallies. It also meant the market would […]
Elaboration
June 27, 2022 Good morning, I promised elaboration for this morning’s note. A review of the construction of the taxable, liquid portions of client portfolios is overdue. Like most professions, investment management is full of jargon. I attempt plain speak in my morning notes but am often reminded, especially by newer readers, that I come […]
Calming Down for the Moment?
June 24, 2022 Good morning, It feels like financial markets are finally prepared to exhale and calm down a little – daily swings this week have narrowed and the VIX has drifted down below 30 (and below its moving averages: 10, 20, 30 and even 40 day). Short term sentiment signals, while not yet at […]
Jeanette Garretty on TD Ameritrade
June 22, 2022 Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on TD Ameritrade Market on Close with host Oliver Renick. She commented, “There is a reasonable risk of a technical recession. Continued strength in employment is a factor to consider. Things are changing in the housing market. There is a repricing in the stock […]
Possible Secular Changes
June 21, 2022 Good morning, Coming into 2022, the investment base case (at least for me) seemed to be that inflation had spiked, the Fed was behind in taming it, a correction was likely. As the months passed, the base case shifted to; inflation is higher than anticipated, the Fed must move more aggressively, and […]
Mallon FitzPatrick in FA Magazine
June 21, 2022 Principal and Managing Director, Mallon FitzPatrick was featured in Financial Advisor Magazine discussing how “High- And Ultra-High-Net-Worth Clients Require an Innovative Approach.” Mallon said, “Not all high and ultra-high-net-worth and family office clients are receptive to wealth planning, at least initially.” Read the full piece here: https://bit.ly/3b9LKCZ
Staying Open Minded
June 17, 2022 Good morning, Futures are pointing up this morning (+1%-ish), following a very volatile four days in stocks and bonds that took the S&P 500 Index down another 6%, and flattened the yield curve right to the point of inversion. All that despite the Fed’s acquiescence to the market’s demand for larger rate […]
Jeanette Garretty on Yahoo Finance
June 15, 2022 Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Yahoo Finance discussing “The Fed’s 75 basis point rate hike is ‘a big move but makes sense’” “The Fed likes to be in charge of where the credit markets are going and be sort of ahead. They haven’t been ahead,” says Garretty, “they […]
Recalibrating For Higher Rates
June 15, 2022 Good morning, Inflation readings over the past few days have come in higher than expected. The bond market’s reaction has been to discount a more aggressive arc of rate increases by the Fed at their next three meetings at least – today, July and September. Looking at Fed Funds futures, that market […]