Likely Pause That Refreshes
October 27, 2021 Good morning, Futures have been just a little soft overnight, vacillating between down a tick and unchanged, ahead of earnings results from more of the biggest U.S. companies not officially considered big-tech (although every big company in the world is heavily laden with tech – hence the reason “tech” will likely lead […]
Time For Beast Mode
October 25, 2021 Good morning, Welcome to big tech week. Earnings reports from the major technology companies come out this week; FB-Mon / MSFT, TWTR, GOOG-Tue / AAPL, AMZN-Thu. Hard to see how the supply chain logjam won’t throw a cold blanket on their earnings reports, but there’s no insight there, everyone knows that. The […]
Looking Through The Present
October 22, 2021 Good morning, Futures (remember, all alone “Futures” denotes the S&P 500 kind, any other futures contract requires specific description – it’s the king and the convention). Anyway, Futures are hovering around unchanged as the overnight session rolls into the cash market open. This, following its 55th record close of the year yesterday. […]
Short & Sweet
October 20, 2021 Good morning, There just isn’t much to write home about this morning. Prices in all assets were quiet overnight, and U.S. markets look to open unchanged. I suspect that as more earnings reports roll in, U.S. equity indexes will continue their recent resumption of their uptrend and look to better their all-time […]
Stay
October 18, 2021 Good morning, By S&P 500 measures, the equity market put in a very good 2nd half of the week last week as earnings season got underway. Recall that the market was off -1% in a news vacuum earlier in the week, and then jumped +2.8% in the back half to finish the […]
We May Have a Hit (A-side)
October 15, 2021 Good morning, It looks like JPM’s earnings release Wednesday morning was a bit of a leading indicator for the group as hinted in Wednesday’s “maybe” note. On the heels of yesterday’s earning’s numbers from the broader group of financials (and others), the equity market staged one of its better rallies – the S&P […]
Short & Sweet & Maybe
October 13, 2021 Good morning, This week truly gets going this morning with the official start of earnings season and the release of inflation’s CPI. Persistent, mildly elevated volatility has dampened index performance for the past two relatively news-free days – the S&P 500 is off about 1 percent for Mon/Tue. JPM’s earnings release early […]
Half A Holiday
October 11, 2021 Good morning, The cash bond market is closed today for the holiday – banks are closed, equity exchanges are open. That said, you would think it unlikely that equities would be derailed today by rising Treasury yields. However, bond futures are trading and are pointing to higher yields up and down the […]
B-side or Better?
October 8, 2021 Good morning, Following the theme of Wednesday’s note: was yesterday’s very broad, globally strong rebound rally the start of a Q4 rally, or the B-side of the recent spike in volatility. I suspect those two drivers are not mutually exclusive but I would attribute more to the backside of volatility than start […]
Inflation Scares Do Toll On Equities
October 6, 2021 Good morning, Inflation! It rumbles on and has been the singular focus of European markets overnight, with a rise in inflation breakevens over there moving spectacularly higher, powered specifically by natural gas. Overnight headlines seem like they are straight out of the 1970’s – soaring any prices, rising yields, and even a […]
Still a Balance of Evidence Process
October 4, 2021 Good morning, Friday’s 1% gain in the S&P 500 wasn’t a bad way to start the quarter. However, the market is a forward looking beast with no memory, so what’s ahead? It’s payroll week and it is starting this morning with yields up slightly on the US-10yr at 1.47% (having settled down […]
Welcoming Q4 With Open Arms
October 1, 2021 Good morning, That was blistering. Recall that only two weeks ago we were commenting on how mild September was for the markets and, half way through that it was only basis points off its all time high set on the first days of the month. Two weeks later and we’re looking at […]