Normal Discovery Stalled Under Blanket of Uncertainty
February 16, 2022 Good morning, The latest retail sales numbers are due before this morning’s market open. Minutes from the Fed’s recent meeting will be released this afternoon. Without the threat of an act of war at the Ukrainian border, the sales numbers and minutes would be important data inputs to the market’s discovery mechanism […]
Encouragement Where There Is None
February 14, 2022 Good morning, Futures are little changed now, 90min before the cash market open. They spent most of the night down over one percent on geopolitical concerns and rallied sharply back to Friday’s closing levels when Russia’s Foreign Minister announced “we can see a way to move forward with talks”. That should wring […]
Not Fatal
February 11, 2022 Good morning, Our equity rebound rally took a severe blow yesterday. Between a stronger than expected CPI report (inflation) in the morning, and Fed Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard’s afternoon remarks that he would favor a 50bps intra-meeting rate hike (meaning now, before the next scheduled Fed meeting in […]
Let It Roll (and New Digs)
February 9, 2022 Good morning, Admin. Note: we’re moving into our new offices this week (see signature below). Just below Central Park and sitting on top of Times Square – we would all love to have you stop by when you’re in town, please! Futures have been steadily climbing all night and are up nicely […]
Home Again, Home Again
February 7, 2022 Good morning, Welcome back! I did breath a sigh of relief Friday afternoon knowing that the first bona-fide, disconnect vacation in a long time for me, didn’t end with a free-falling equity market. What a nice change – maybe I should do it more often now. Last week the equity market had […]
Warning
January 31, 2022 Good morning, From a short term perspective (days and weeks), the sell-off this month shares more characteristics with a correction than the beginning of a bear market. The technical indicators describe a rotational correction, not a new bear market. Correlations typically get very strong and run high in a bear market, and […]
Tantrums
January 27, 2022 Good morning, It looks like yesterday morning’s rally was just a pre-Fed meeting drift and not a stronger, lasting shift away from correction mode for the markets. The tantrum continues I suppose. I haven’t used that word to describe this month’s market decline but I do think that’s what we seeing. Tantrum […]
Pre-Fed Drift or Shift
January 26, 2022 Good morning, Happy Fed Day and thank goodness it’s here, at least from the view of overnight sentiment. Futures are up for a change this morning, +1.75% with Nasdaq futures up +2.5%. I think we know only too well that where markets are early in the morning ET, has little bearing on […]
Leans Toward Favorable
January 25, 2022 Good morning, Talk about elevated volatility. The major indexes dropped over 4% (no typo, four whole percent) yesterday morning before turning around, recouping all the losses on the day, and finishing just slightly above where they ended on Friday. In the case of the S&P 500, it finished the wild day up […]
Not a Clarion Bell to Sell
January 24, 2022 Good morning, In just four days last week, the U.S. equity market suffered a heavy toll with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 down -5.67%, -7.55% and -8.07%, respectively. And for the fist time in 2yrs, Covid doesn’t make the list of the top reasons for the sell-off. Side-note: this probably […]
Rates and Their Rate
January 20, 2022 Good morning, Overnight futures on the major indexes are pointing modestly higher this morning. 90 min before the opening bell, the Dow is up +120pts, while the S&P’s are up +.40% (Nasdaq is up twice that). Although we know just how untrustworthy overnight price action is in dictating what happens during the […]
Higher Rates Again Weighting on Stocks
January 18, 2022 Good morning, We had a pretty quiet 3-day weekend market-wise. Omicron appears to be peaking in a number of locals (including NYC), however that seems to be of no concern to the market. What has its attention this morning is rising rates, and the now 2wk old consolidation looks to continue as […]