Prediction Season (for what it’s worth)
December 10, 2021 Good morning, It is prediction season with research shops of all shapes and sizes marching out their 2022 forecasts. NDR (Ned Davis Research) hosted their all-hands-on-deck conference call yesterday. They are following their 2021 – A Year of Recovery theme with 2022 – A Year of Reversals this year. Broadly speaking they […]
Discounted
December 8, 2021 Good morning, For most of last night’s trading, Futures were up ~10pts (+.20%). At 7am ET, this headline printed “Three Doses Pfizer Vaccine Neutralizes Omicron Variant”. The next Futures price was +30pts (.64%) higher. The initial move on any headline is machine driven (the algo machines), what the market does after the […]
Masking
December 6, 2021 Good morning, This morning’s news headline – “Omicron Spreads; Hospitalizations in Check for Now” – is getting the most attention from trader’s this morning. Futures wavered back and forth all night but sit at the high end of their overnight range (+.40%) an hour ahead of the cash market open. The VIX […]
A Good Market Tell
December 3, 2021 Good morning, The November jobs data released this morning and the headline number fell shockingly short of expectations: +210k job gains vs +550k expected. The underlying data was not as bad as the headline and while all the data is interesting, it’s not going to move the needle of the market. Omicron […]
Buckle Up
December 2, 2021 Good morning, If there were any doubts of the market’s discomfort with uncertainty, the past week’s market action has removed them. Markets have, rather violently, bounced around – down and to a lesser extent up – all week in reaction to pandemic headlines (and a surprise from Fed Chair Powell). Yesterday, in […]
Another Surprise, Another Wave of Selling
December 1, 2021 Good morning, Just as the market seemed to be re-pricing the uncertainty from the unknown Omicron variant and working off the Friday’s semi-holiday over-reaction with a rally on Monday, another unexpected surprise hit on Tuesday. Jerome Powell’s “hawkish pivot” yesterday during Senate testimony brought on another wave of selling and markets dropped […]
Unknown to Known
November 29, 2021 Good morning, I am not a conspiracy theorist, nor do I believe in coincidences, so that leaves me with just a hint of suspicion that somebody made a lot of money Friday. However, none of that matters, what is relevant now is that Friday’s carnage was about two simple factors; the emergence of […]
Happy Thanksgiving!
November 22, 2021 Good morning, Thanksgiving week looks to be kicking off in a relatively good mood for global equity markets. U.S. Futures are up about +.30% ahead of the cash market open. My concern for the market around the fourth wave of Covid cases throughout Europe, mentioned in Friday’s note, was broadly addressed over […]
Cause For More Pause?
November 19, 2021 Good morning, Concerns around the fourth wave of Covid dragged down overnight markets as European lockdown headlines cast a pall over Friday’s trading on exchanges overseas. U.S. Futures are only off -0.15% but it’s a Covid day in terms of the market’s focus. Markets are right to be worried about Covid’s spread […]
More Short & Sweet
November 17, 2021 Good morning, The “pause” periods for the equity market are often frustrating to me personally – there just isn’t that much to write about. Futures overnight were steady as fears of inflation and Europe’s fourth virus wave were said to be simmering under the surface (Bloomberg). With little else to write about, […]
Brief One
November 15, 2021 Good morning, Futures are up this morning (.40%) after most equity indexes snapped their weekly winning streak last week – the S&P 500 was off -.27% on the week. Earnings season largely wraps up this week. Companies that have reported earnings so far have broadly beaten expectations which has been supportive to […]
Proud
November 12, 2021 Good morning, The market feels tired this Friday morning – but maybe that’s me, because I’m exhausted. RS-NYC hosted our first 2-day offsite partners meeting that ran late into last night. I must say, as the longest standing member (Q3-2013) of the organization, it was with great perspective that I could appreciate […]