Focus On The Data, Not The Digits
January 14, 2022 Good morning, The choppy (volatile) consolidation, led by technology, that began last week looks like it will march on right through the end of this week too. The only difference this week is that selling has broadened out – the Russell 2000 is leading indexes down so far this week for example. […]
That’s Volatility
January 12, 2022 Good morning, Terror was palpable in the markets Monday morning as the Nasdaq Index (tech) plummeted again, and cracked the -10% level (from its high) intraday. Traders openly wondered if there would ever be a bid for a tech stock again. Yesterday, for whatever reason, investors reacted to Chair Powell’s comments as […]
One Word
January 10, 2022 Good morning, The first week of the year, following what I thought was a surprising Santa Rally, is best described in one word: consolidation. The S&P 500 was off only -1.87% on the week, but growth bore the brunt of it, with the NASDAQ down -4.52% comparatively. Tech (growth) is the largest […]
More Fear?
January 7, 2022 Good morning, The December employment numbers were released at 8:30 am ET this morning to mixed results. The headline number was well short of expectations with only a 200,000 increase in payrolls vs 450,000 expected. Not a good headline for the economy, but beneath it the numbers exceeded expectations with the unemployment […]
NOT Fear Mongering – Just Prepping
January 5, 2022 Good morning, It’s a Fed day of sorts, the minutes of the last FOMC gathering – the one where they doubled the pace of taper and released a new dot plot – are set for release this afternoon. Worth noting, rates have recently jumped up – the 10yr UST yield is up […]
Consensus
January 3, 2022 Good morning, HNY everyone, I hope you all had a wonderful holiday. Surely, the equity markets did. Officially the Santa Rally includes the first two trading days of the new year, and true to form, Futures are up +0.5% this morning ahead of a jammed pack week of economic data culminating with […]
To Your Health & Happiness
December 28, 2021 Good morning, I hope you are well recovered from a nice holiday weekend and are prepared for another one ahead. It seems like our bull market has had a very spirited week as well, with no signs of slowing through next week. It appears that my cautious tone in these notes since Thanksgiving, […]
Merry Merry
December 22, 2021 Good morning, Wow, elevated volatility into the holiday illiquidity zone mentioned Monday was an understatement. Monday’s torpedoed Build Back Better Bill (4B’s) and Omicron-is-Awful sentiment slammed markets down 1% across the board. Tuesday’s 4B’s is not dead yet, and Omicron-is-Mild sentiment sent market prices skyward, retracing Monday’s losses and then some. This […]
Holiday Illiquidity Zone
December 20, 2021 Good morning, If the industry of news is paid to sell fear, they are earning their keep today. The top headlines are shared between the rapid spread of Omicron and Senator Joe Manchin, who in a surprise move on Sunday, walked away from the Build Back Better Bill (BBBB). Not a single news […]
Discounting a Headwind?
December 17, 2021 Good morning, Following Wednesday afternoon’s strong but brief relief rally (relief that Powell didn’t do anything unexpected), investor’s seemed to realize that all three major central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) were making decisions this week demonstrating that they no longer regard the downside risks to economic activity over the coming months as […]
Fed Day
December 15, 2021 Good morning, Overnight Futures have been steady and largely unchanged as the Fed decision looms. Yes, Fed day is finally here. The end of the easing cycle is fast approaching (first rate hike now expected mid 2022). The Fed is widely expected to announce that it will accelerate the pace of the […]
Heavyweights Battle
December 13, 2021 Good morning, The fourth quarter rally resumed last week as laboratories around the world revealed Omicron’s characteristics. Santa is back, but not for everyone it seems. While the S&P 500 made a new closing high on Friday, none of the NASDAQ Comp, Russell 2000, Dow or Wilshire 5000 managed to do that. […]