Hawkish Fed, Weakening Labor Data, and Markets Pushing Cuts to 2026
Executive Summary The recent odds of a December cut have been going down to 44% and a 56% chance of a hold. With that said, there are now three cuts priced into 2026, so the bond market more or less is pushing out the rate cut into next year. Regardless, the Fed is becoming increasingly […]
A Flood of Delayed Data Could Cloud the Economic Picture
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) probably haven’t felt quite this warmly welcomed in a very long time. Memories of various proposals to eliminate or sharply curtail reports on prices and labor markets (as recently as August), have been forgotten in the hot anticipation of sorely missed economic data […]
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty joined Bloomberg: The Asia Trade to discuss the U.S. economic outlook following the recent government shutdown and what’s ahead for markets as the country resets. Click here to watch her full interview (starting at the 24:52 mark) or watch below.
CIO Stuart Katz on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz joined Money Life with Chuck Jaffe to discuss why rate cuts could push investors off the sidelines, the bond sectors best positioned to benefit, and what may lead markets as growth slows. Stuart’s interview begins at the 17:10 minute mark.
From SNAP to Skies: The Real Economy Feels the Shutdown
There are a lot of under-appreciated economic impacts from the US federal government shutdown. For example, the suspension of SNAP payments not only catastrophically affects poor families and seniors but also the grocers and farmers who supply the food that would be purchased with the SNAP monies. Federal worker incomes are the lifeblood of many […]
Earnings Strength Anchors a Volatile Market
Executive Summary The stock market has stayed resilient with sporadic pullbacks and shots of volatility. We expect this choppiness to continue into year-end. The real story remains the same: The economy has been resilient, the consumer has been resilient, and the Fed has cut rates in an economic expansion due to an increased focus on […]
Investors Breathe Again (for Now): Senate Nudges the Can to January – November 10, 2025
Good morning, Following a week in which investor anxiety seemed disproportionate to the market’s modest pullback, equities are bouncing back in early trading this morning. For the week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 fell -1.61%, -3.03%, and -1.86% respectively. As of 8 a.m. ET this morning, futures for the same indices are up +0.90%, +1.43%, […]
Markets Take a Breather: Why This Pullback May Be Short-Lived – November 7, 2025
Good morning, Equity markets are experiencing their first multi-day pullback in quite some time, and—as is typical following an extended rally—emotions are running high. So far this week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 are down -1.74%, -2.83%, and -2.43%, respectively, through yesterday’s close—and a bit more given the softness in this morning’s futures. […]
Earnings Stay Strong, Data Stays Dark – November 3, 2025
Good morning, Last Friday’s market action did little to change the broader narrative for the week. A steady stream of market-moving catalysts—Fed commentary, tariff headlines, and 5 Mag-7 earnings—brought some mild volatility, but the week ultimately ended with modest gains across all major indices. Those small gains were enough to push every major index except the Russell […]
October 2025 Monthly Letter
As we enter the final act of the year, a quick glance at the chart below tells the story: the preponderance of black ink (positive returns) on the right side says it all. It’s a clear reminder that my post–Liberation Day caution—expecting slower growth and lingering inflation pressures—proved a bit too guarded and risk-averse. In […]
AI Continues to Fuel the Bull—Despite Crosscurrents – October 31, 2025
Good morning, Happy Halloween—and welcome to the month’s end and the weekend. So far, the week has not disappointed expectations of being one of the busiest as we head toward year-end. The Fed enigmatically enacted a hawkish rate cut, and the probability of another cut in December has now been halved to 50%. The China tariff […]
FOMC Commentary – October 29, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the Federal Funds rate target range by 25bps, from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%. The context provided for this move was as important as the interest rate cut itself, slowing employment growth but continued inflation at levels “somewhat” higher than desirable.