January 2026 Monthly Letter
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions and increased volatility across all financial markets—stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies—January ultimately reflected a renewed appetite for risk as investors turned the calendar page. As illustrated in the chart below, global equities continued to lead and outperform their U.S. counterparts, while U.S. equity investors further diversified away from highly concentrated AI exposure. Fixed income was essentially flat […]
A Calm January Despite Noisy Headlines – January 26, 2026
Good morning, The first three weeks of January have delivered more than their share of attention-grabbing headlines—from the White House, the weather, and moves in gold and currency markets. Yet none of this has meaningfully disrupted either stocks or bonds. With one week left in the month, equity markets are modestly higher across the board. […]
Markets Whipsawed by Tariffs—Then Back to Drift – January 23, 2026
Good morning, Happy Friday. This week began largely as expected following the holiday-weekend headlines around new tariffs tied to potential U.S. control of Greenland. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index fell just over 2%, alongside declines across all major U.S. equity indexes—the largest one-day drop since last April’s tariff tantrum. By the end of Tuesday, […]
Tariffs Back in Focus as Markets Reverse Early Gains – January 20, 2026
Good morning, A little more than halfway through January (56%), equity markets had been enjoying a welcome broadening of leadership into sectors not known for direct AI exposure (though nearly all sectors will ultimately be influenced by AI). More importantly, that expansion has coincided with persistently higher yields across the curve and a meaningful shift […]
A Sudden Detour from an Otherwise Orderly Market – January 12, 2026
Good morning, I expected to be writing about last week’s solid market performance, the start of earnings season, and the inflation data due this week—altogether, a market continuing its orderly ascent, led by AI, its adjacent beneficiaries, and the broader economy that increasingly rides their coattails. Instead, that narrative has been abruptly hijacked by the […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: January 9, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including oil and non farm payroll employment.
Limbo – January 9, 2026
Good morning, December employment data released this morning came in slightly below expectations. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.5%, while other labor indicators were mixed—helping explain the bond market’s collective shrug. In the betting markets, the odds of a January rate cut have fallen to zero, and speculation that December’s cut may have […]
I’m a Wealth Planner: Forget 2026 Market Forecasts and Focus on These 3 Goals for Financial Success
As published on Kiplinger We know the economy is unpredictable, geopolitical events can happen without warning, and markets will do what they do, no matter who predicts what. Here’s how to focus on what you can control. Every January, the financial news landscape is flooded with two things: Articles about canceling unused gym memberships and […]
Equity Market Recap – Stock Market Ends the Year Near All-Time Highs
Monthly Market Summary 2025 began with the stock market hitting new highs in February, only to reverse sharply as trade policy uncertainty triggered a nearly -20% sell-off. However, the sell-off set the stage for one of the strongest recoveries in decades. Fueled by AI enthusiasm, rate cut expectations, strong corporate earnings, and resilient economic growth, […]
December 2025 Recap
Economic Commentary The 2026 Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy The economic trajectory as we exit the year remains constructive, characterized by a fundamental shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy dilemma. The central factor is the broadening disinflationary trend, particularly as shelter inflation eases, which fundamentally alters the Fed’s reaction function. This cooling inflationary backdrop […]
2025 Market Recap: Strong Returns Across Assets, Elevated Valuations, and Falling Rates Set the Stage for 2026
Equities The S&P 500 returned 17.9% in 2025 and ended the year just off an all-time high, capping a 37% recovery from the April lows as the economy and corporate profits proved far more resilient than markets feared from tariffs and geopolitical events. Exuberance of the prospects for Artificial Intelligence was a key aspect of […]
Passing the Baton: What Powers the Economy Into 2026
Welcome to 2026. The traditional image of the baby who brings in the new year seems modestly inappropriate as the US economy enters what, by many measures, represents the 198th month of an economic expansion that started in the third quarter of 2009. There have indeed been quarters of negative growth during this time period, most notably during the spring […]