Sticking to the Script
July 26, 2021 Good morning, After dropping -1.6% (S&P 500) last Monday on a growth scare (delta variant), buyers rushed in for the rest of the week and pushed the index up to another new all time high, leaving it up +2% on the week. Worth noting, international equities as measured by the All Country […]
Who’da Thunk
July 23, 2021 Good morning, A simple definition of increased market volatility is that the world can look profoundly different in just a matter of hours. At mid-afternoon on Monday this week, who would have thought that as Friday’s open approached we would be only a few points away from new all-time highs on S&P […]
Lumber prices will fall back to pre-pandemic levels within a year amid considerable volatility, investment chief says
July 17, 2021 – Business Insider By Isabelle Lee Our CIO Stuart Katz was featured in Business Insider commenting that lumber prices will fall back to pre-pandemic levels within a year amid considerable volatility – read more from his interview with Isabelle Lee here. Disclosure Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC […]
Liquidity Still Reigns
July 21, 2021 Good morning, Let’s stretch our market memories and go all the way back to … Monday morning. Yes, it feels like a long time ago that panic was running through global markets over the delta variant and the consequential slowdown of global economic growth. I believe yesterday’s market message as all of […]
Global Growth Fears
July 19, 2021 Good morning, It appears that the bond market had more than technical short covering on its mind two weeks ago when yields plunged to new reaction lows. And it seems that around mid-day Friday, the equity market began caring about why yields were dropping. The delta variant is being labeled a pandemic […]
Still Whistling
July 16, 2021 Good morning, June’s Retail Sales numbers came in this morning, headlining at +0.6% vs -0.3% expected. Put another log on the bull market fire, and let the grind higher in equity prices continue. _______________________________ Your fully invested Bear reviewed the mid-month Technical/Quantitative Models last night trying to peak around the corner of […]
What To Look For This Season
July 14, 2021 Good morning, With Q2 earnings season kicking off yesterday, let’s talk about what might be needed this E-season to sustain our Bull market. We have all grown accustomed to the games publicly traded companies play around their earnings. They tell a rosy story of how they are laying the groundwork this year […]
Late Stage Signs
July 12, 2021 Good morning, A very tough week in bond-land last week finished on Friday with the pundits reporting that the swift and surprising move down in yields last week was not fundamental (that eco-growth may not be as robust as previously thought), but was instead due to a technical condition of the market […]
It May Not Be Just Inflation That Is Transitory
July 8, 2021 Good morning, The following is a reprint of the cover letter included in client’s monthly performance reports going out this morning. I wrote this last night which makes it unusually suited for today’s Morning Note. To avoid burying the headline, to summarize what is below – bond investors appear to believe it’s […]
Quiet & Compelling
July 6, 2021 Good morning, Markets are generally flat and quiet leading into the U.S. market’s open this morning. And I haven’t found much to write home about this morning either. There still seems to be ample liquidity sloshing around monetary systems globally and schools, broadly speaking appear set to open in the fall. Combined, […]
Capital Gains in Your Portfolio
By Lauren Sigman and Sean Powers “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” Depending on who you are talking to, and the size of their expected tax bill, these words from Ben Franklin leave some with a hard time deciding which one is worse. Thinking long term when […]
A Low Volume and Probably Not High Volatility Day
July 2, 2021 Good morning, Not much to write about this morning, it will be a low volume Friday ahead of THE holiday weekend in NYC – my gosh, I’d forgotten how the city absolutely clears out this week. Fortunately it’s for good reasons this year. The June employment numbers were released this morning and […]