A Pause Is Corrective Action In A Strong Tape
October 24, 2024 Good morning, So far this week, we’ve seen the S&P 500 Index decline 3-days in a row – is a correction afoot? The Index is off –1.38% over those 3-days; it is more of a pause than anything else. And given that a correction is overdue for stocks while volatility remains elevated, […]
Steady As She Goes
October 21, 2024 Good morning, The steady and moderately paced melt-up in all the major equity indices (almost all of which are in new high territory) continued last week as quarterly earnings and economic data helped validate the bull camp’s narrative – a soft/no landing thesis. Breadth (daily advancing stocks vs declining stocks) remains broad […]
The Trend Is Your Friend
October 17, 2024 Good morning, Momentum is an important factor in the calculus explaining the price fluctuation of securities in the public markets. In market analysis, momentum is a nebulous concept; it is physics (mass x velocity) applied to an emotional structure (public markets). Nevertheless, when a broad portion of a market rolls in one […]
Melt-Up Continues – Choppiness Likely Ahead
October 14, 2024 Good morning, The U.S. stock market continued to climb its wall of expanding list of worries last week. Despite the sharp rise in geopolitical risk from the Middle East, rising oil prices, higher yields in credit markets, and lowered expectations of Fed easing, the S&P 500 Index was able to set new […]
October 2024 Recap
Economy In October 2024, the US economy continued to show resilience to high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, growing even above the Fed’s estimate of its potential growth of 2%. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, dropped to 2.09% year-over-year in September, aligning closely with the Federal Reserve’s target […]
Why The Next Two Weeks Are So Important…
By John Lau November 4, 2024 – It is not an exaggeration to say that the next two weeks could likely determine if stocks hold (or even extend) the YTD gains or if volatility resurfaces and we have a tumultuous end to what has been, so far, a good year in the markets. This is […]
Demand Your Client Bill of Rights
The Essential Questions You Should Ask ANY Financial Advisor (Even if You’re ALREADY a Client) John Lau, CPA, CFP® Evaluating financial advisors isn’t easy. “Do I need a fiduciary?” “Do I need an advisor or a planner? Or both?” “How much is it going to cost me?” The questions can seem endless, and that leads […]
The Efficient Frontier: Why Consider Investing There?
By Joe Delaney In the world of finance, the efficient frontier represents a set of optimal portfolios that operate the highest expected return for a defined level of risk. Modern portfolio theory suggests that rational investors will choose a portfolio that lies on this frontier since it provides the best risk-reward trade-off. However, traditional investment […]
Don’t Fight the Tape and the Fed
September 30, 2024 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index has been setting marginally higher new highs the past two weeks, spurred on by the Fed’s rate cut and China’s massive stimulus programs. That distills down to a strong Tape (“Don’t Fight The Tape”) and an accommodative Fed (“Don’t Fight The Fed) – the first 2 […]
Quarterly Letter: Navigating Resilience and Uncertainty
October 10, 2024 – The best adjective to describe the US economy in the first three quarters of 2024 is ‘resilient’. Despite high interest rates, extensive layoffs, the threat (and promise) of AI, global geopolitical turmoil, and internal political uncertainty, the US economy continues to grow at a steady clip. Recent estimates suggest that Gross […]
Robertson Stephens Opens 1st Office in Greater Chicago Area, Hits $7 Billion in AUM
CAFG Private Wealth joins Robertson Stephens, opens new office in North Barrington, IL. SAN FRANCISCO, October 8, 2024—Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”) is pleased to announce the acquisition of CAFG Private Wealth, a registered investment advisor managing over $240 million in assets and specializing in comprehensive financial planning and tax preparation. Tom Chernesky, founder […]
September 2024 Recap
Economic Highlights In the month of September, the U.S. economy showed signs of stability and moderate growth despite some softer employment trends. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, rose by 2.2% year-over-year in August, down from 2.5% in July, indicating that inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s […]