Economic Commentary – September 15, 2025
The burning question this week is NOT “What Will the Federal Reserve Do?” It is the question of how bad the US labor market really is, and it is a question that will not be answered. But it will be much discussed, especially on Wednesday, during Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s press conference following the Federal Open […]
Market Note: A Fall Chill is in the Air
September 12, 2025 – It’s astounding that even in this age of breathtaking technological innovation, our ability to understand the state of the economy in real time remains limited. Economists and investors worldwide rely on government data that is released with significant delays and often revised. You almost have to wonder, where’s AI when you […]
Economic Commentary – September 8, 2025
The data being released in the next few days should cause a certain amount of acid reflux, both in global financial markets and in Washington, D.C. One statistic that seldom generates much attention outside of economic circles is the annual benchmark revision (think of it as a “true-up” with all the now-available data) in US […]
Investment Commentary – September 8, 2025
Executive Summary Financial markets have weathered months of policy-driven volatility, and after a nearly 20% decline, the S&P 500 has regained all its losses and set numerous all-time highs. What remains is a sharply higher effective tariff rate and uncertainty about the impact of 2026 corporate earnings, consumer demand, and economic growth. While easing tensions […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: September 5, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including inflation, the US consumer, the housing market, and job openings.
August Recap: Stocks Trade Higher as Federal Reserve Signals Rate Cut
Monthly Market Summary Federal Reserve Prepares to Cut Interest Rates as the Labor Market Softens The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged this year due to concerns that tariffs could reignite inflation. This concern, along with strong job growth and low unemployment, gave the central bank time to wait for more data. However, the […]
August 2025 Recap
The Economy Macro Calm, Fed on Track US August economic data delivered a backdrop of stable inflation and modestly softer growth, keeping the Fed on course for a 25-basis-point cut at its next meeting. Inflation measures came in about as expected across income, spending, and core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, an unusually clean […]
How Withdrawal Rates Impact Your Portfolio in Retirement
August 26, 2025 – Many people spend years preparing for retirement by saving and investing, but planning shouldn’t stop once the paychecks do. Transitioning from earning income to withdrawing it from your portfolio is a major shift with a new set of risks and decisions. This period, known as the distribution phase, requires careful thought. […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: August 22, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including inflation, the US consumer, the housing market, and job openings.
Economic Commentary – August 18, 2025
An invite to the annual Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium — officially, “The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming”— has been highly prized almost from the event’s founding in 1982. There are few gatherings of central bankers, government officials, academics, and financial industry leaders that can compare with the quality of […]
Investment Commentary – August 18, 2025
Executive Summary The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” The symposium is scheduled for August 21-23. It’s an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, economists, and academics to discuss important economic issues and […]
From Breakthrough to Legacy: Lessons from the Wyndham Championship
On Sunday afternoon, August 3rd, I watched the final round of the Wyndham Championship held at Sedgefield Country Club in North Carolina. As I watched, I realized that I was witnessing a young man establishing himself as a winner in the form of Cameron Young and an aged veteran making his exit from the golf […]