Investment Commentary – October 20, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned 1.1% for the week amid continued optimism around AI, a strong start to the earnings season, from large banks, and increasing hopes for further rate cuts from the Fed. Markets looked past trade tensions with China and emerging credit issues at regional banks as Fed Chair Powell signaled that the […]
Quarterly Letter: The Political Limits of Growth
By Avi Deutsch October 10, 2025 – As I write this, the U.S. government remains shut down as Congress once again fails to agree on a path to keep the government funded. Government shutdowns have been a feature of American politics since the 1980s, but they have been increasing in frequency and length. The last […]
Investment Commentary – October 6, 2025
Executive Summary Equity Markets Risk On Last week, global equity funds experienced the best week of inflows in nearly a year, led by U.S. technology and financial stocks. The third quarter was strong across both risk- and risk-control portfolios, with global equities gaining over 8%. In the U.S., small caps gained over 12% for the […]
Economic Commentary – October 6, 2025
The US Government Shutdown continues, swamping most of the other economic storylines. However, the ADP employment report from last week, showing 32,000 jobs lost in September (excluding any federal employment job losses, which are not counted by ADP), continues to reverberate. Whether a result of undeniable negative signals coming from job markets or of elected officials […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: October 3, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including US consumer sentiment, vehicle sales, US agriculture, oil prices, and private sector jobs.
September 2025 Recap
Economic Commentary Special Note: As of this writing, the federal government has shut down due to the expiration of government appropriations. While the length of the shutdown remains uncertain, we would note that historically, financial markets have shrugged off government shutdowns. September’s data reinforced the market’s Goldilocks narrative, underscoring why equities continue to advance. Inflation aligned […]
Economic Commentary – September 29 2025
It will be quite some time before the most significant effects of a less restrictive monetary policy become apparent. New home sales, for example, have already picked up as lower mortgage rates have combined with builder incentives to lower purchase prices, yet the far-larger market for existing home sales remains constrained by high price points. Car […]
Investment Commentary – September 29, 2025
Executive Summary The economy appears to remain resilient, and the Fed is cutting rates in the middle of an economy that is slowing but still expanding. Historically, such conditions have been bullish for risk assets. According to Franklin Templeton, in the last 50 years, there have been eight instances where the Fed resumed cutting interest […]
U.S. Government Shutdowns and Risk Markets
US Federal Government Shutdowns Some of the federal government’s activities are set to shut down if Congress cannot agree to fund them by October 1, 2025 What is a government shutdown? A shutdown occurs when non-essential federal government activities close temporarily because Congress has not approved funding to keep them open. There have been 10 […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: September 19, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including inflation, US consumer sentiment and demand, as well as job revisions and jobless claims.
FOMC Commentary – September 17, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the Federal Funds rate target range by 25bps, from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%. The context provided for this move was as important as the interest rate cut itself, slowing employment growth but continued inflation at levels “somewhat” higher than desirable.
Economic Commentary – September 15, 2025
The burning question this week is NOT “What Will the Federal Reserve Do?” It is the question of how bad the US labor market really is, and it is a question that will not be answered. But it will be much discussed, especially on Wednesday, during Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s press conference following the Federal Open […]