Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on BloombergTV
June 19, 2025 – Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty was interviewed yesterday on BloombergTV. She discusses why “wait and watch” is the Fed’s only real option right now—and Powell seems surprisingly at ease with the current economic outlook. Hear why Jeanette thinks rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon in this sharp analysis, starting at 10:30. Watch Jeanette […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: June 20, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including the Fed Rate, GDP estimates, home sales, oil prices, and Chinese exports and imports.
FOMC Commentary – June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today confirmed the current monetary policy, keeping the target Fed Funds rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range and continuing to reduce the Fed’s holdings of US Treasuries and agency debt (“the balance sheet.”)
Wealth Planning Commentary – June 16, 2025
Don’t Just Sign Trust Documents, Retitle Even the most thoughtfully designed estate plans can fail when trusts aren’t funded—a common and avoidable oversight. Often, someone works with an attorney to establish a revocable trust. Yet afterward, all or a portion of their assets remain titled in their individual or joint name rather than in the […]
Investment Commentary – June 16, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, stocks were down and bonds up (price up/yield down). The MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE. The best performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy, healthcare, and utilities. Across U.S. Russell style & market cap indices, large-cap value did the best, and the value factor […]
Corporate Earnings Off to a Solid Start in 2025
June 17, 2025 – The stock market’s performance is a function of two variables: earnings and valuations. A company generates profits, and investors assign a multiple to those profits, such as 15x or 20x earnings, to determine the company’s valuation. This year, earnings have been in the spotlight as policy uncertainty around tariffs and global […]
Economic Commentary – June 16, 2025
One of the practical implications of an economy that is growing at 1% versus an economy growing at 2-2.5% is that a more slowly growing economy tips into negative territory far more readily, with attendant implications for employment, earnings, and tax revenues. Thus far in the second quarter of 2025, the data persistently indicates that the US economy is growing at a pace greater […]
More Uncertainty for a Compressed Week – June 16, 2025
Good morning, Although the weekend headlines were dramatic, they apparently weren’t dramatic enough to really rattle markets this morning. As of 8 am EDT, futures are up +0.65%, and bonds have given back Friday’s gains. Same story globally—equities are bouncing even as tensions in the Middle East continue. Maybe investors are taking their cue from […]
Market Note: Who’s the PIG(S) Now?
June 13, 2025 – In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, many watched the unfolding European debt crisis with a mix of concern, curiosity, and self-satisfaction. Starting in 2009, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the so-called PIGS), among others, struggled to pay off their sovereign debt and were forced to accept international bailouts. […]
Mid-May Monthly Market Update
May 21, 2025 – Daniel Arcos provides us with a mid-month update.
Investment Commentary – June 9, 2025
Executive Summary U.S. stocks closed within ~2% of their all-time highest level since February 2025, lifted by a combination of resilient jobs data and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Bond Yields climbed as investors recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve policy, following economic signals that eased fears of an imminent slowdown and fluctuating levels […]
After the Disaster: An Expert’s Guide to Deciding Whether to Rebuild or Relocate
As published in Kiplinger A home is more than an asset — it’s where milestones are celebrated, memories are made, and a sense of stability is anchored. The emotional and financial impact can be profound when a natural disaster strikes. And once the immediate damage is assessed, a more complex question emerges: Should we rebuild […]