They say fashion trends are rarely new and mostly repeat themselves. Walk around Brooklyn, where I live, and you’ll see plenty of mullets, straight-leg jeans, and baby tees harking back to the late 90s and early aughts. Well, fashion is not the only Y2K throwback of the season; please welcome back the pre-2008 interest rates! (round of applause) To fully appreciate the magnitude of the change in the interest rate environment, it’s worth reflecting on just how abnormally low interest rates were between the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 and 2022, when the 10-year Treasury crossed the 4% yield for the first time since 2010.[1] This was the era of cheap money, and it touched almost every aspect of our lives: assets from stocks to real estate

September is a bad month for stocks. In fact, it’s the worst month, on average, for every U.S. stock index. Going back to 1928, the S&P has lost an average of 1.1% in September, and it ended the month in negative territory more than half the time.[1] This is not to suggest any market timing schemes, but rather serves as a reminder of the extent to which the stock market reflects shifting attitudes and moods that are highly subjective. A seasonal zeitgeist, if you will. Gone is the summer high. In is the fall hustle, and if you’re looking, there’s plenty to worry about. For those looking at the economy and the markets, the unfolding interest rate drama is high on the worry list. The 10-year Treasury rose

July 10, 2026 – The U.S. consumer is decidedly not happy. In fact, as Chart 1 shows, U.S. consumer sentiment currently sits at its lowest level in 10 years—worse than during the depth of COVID, the 40-year peak of 9% inflation of 2022, or the rate hikes of 2023-2024. There are myriad reasons for this unhappiness, starting, of course, with inflation. After decades of stable inflation, the post-COVID spikes blindsided consumers and materially eroded their spending power. Ten thousand dollars in 2019 dollars is worth only $7,629 today, a 24% drop in purchasing power.[1] The impact of this change is felt by anyone who has not seen a corresponding increase in their income. While real wages have barely moved (+1.0%) since 2019, there have been sharp divergences across