Weekly Commentary

The most notable number for this week is the number from Friday of last week— but NOT the nonfarm payrolls number, despite its importance. The Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence caught almost everyone unaware, both the decline in the figure and,

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is expected to introduce a new monetary policy concept: The Pause. Of course, there is no such theory called “The Pause,” and there is not much theory behind this (in)action. Last week, stocks

Some of you will remember the famous quote from the film “Apocalypse Now”: “I love the smell of napalm in the morning.” You can be forgiven for thinking this might be the new, intentionally theatrical motto of trade negotiators everywhere. Earnings

It should be a doozy of a week.  Financial markets are continuing to digest the extremely strong US nonfarm employment numbers from Friday while contemplating the release of a full load of inflation data.  Strong economic growth going into the first

Happy New Year. More so than most times, this "New" seems very new.  Over the last 25 years, there have been only five two-year periods in which the US Congress and the White House have been controlled by the same political party; the current

Economic data descends upon us this week, like big, fat, fluffy snowflakes. Each piece of data is different but collectively details the landscape, possibly even making for a snowball fight.  The FOMC meeting, which will culminate in the last

With few immediate concerns about the pace of economic growth —last week’s robust nonfarm payroll growth of 227,000 and an upbeat report from the National Retail Federation quite effectively set aside the slowdown worries — the focus now returns to

We enter this week into that slightly unreal month where the year seems mostly done, but the next year hasn’t started — an uncomfortable limbo papered over with parties and travel and shopping and general busyness. Apparently, enough of the travel

First of all, Happy Thanksgiving. This is a time to reflect upon all the opportunities and challenges that have come our way and to be thankful for our ability to work diligently on the path forward. It is not always easy because, among other things,

A dearth of important economic news combined with the growing gravitational pull of Thanksgiving and end-of-year holiday planning — Why isn’t Thanksgiving this week? Is it still 2024?— will continue to drive the economic debate into the fantasy-land