Weekly Commentary

The data keeps piling up on the side of economic caution and weakness for this first quarter of 2025. Retail sales, residential real estate (including home improvement), consumer spending (including on services), business spending, and inventories

It is a measure of how worried investors are about economic growth when Fed Chairman Powell pushes the equity markets UP by signaling no that interest rate cuts are coming any time soon. A few short months ago, this message from the Fed would have

Was last Friday's US Purchasing Managers Index for Services the proverbial shot across the bow? It was certainly an attention-grabber, coming in below expectations and indicating the first monthly contraction in the service sector in two years. The

It is more than a bit unusual, in an economy growing almost 3% and an unemployment rate at 4%, to suddenly see so many Google (and ChatGPT) searches on the subject of US Unemployment Benefits. Normally, questions about unemployment benefits

The most notable number for this week is the number from Friday of last week— but NOT the nonfarm payrolls number, despite its importance. The Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence caught almost everyone unaware, both the decline in the figure and,

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is expected to introduce a new monetary policy concept: The Pause. Of course, there is no such theory called “The Pause,” and there is not much theory behind this (in)action. Last week, stocks

Some of you will remember the famous quote from the film “Apocalypse Now”: “I love the smell of napalm in the morning.” You can be forgiven for thinking this might be the new, intentionally theatrical motto of trade negotiators everywhere. Earnings

It should be a doozy of a week.  Financial markets are continuing to digest the extremely strong US nonfarm employment numbers from Friday while contemplating the release of a full load of inflation data.  Strong economic growth going into the first

Happy New Year. More so than most times, this "New" seems very new.  Over the last 25 years, there have been only five two-year periods in which the US Congress and the White House have been controlled by the same political party; the current

Economic data descends upon us this week, like big, fat, fluffy snowflakes. Each piece of data is different but collectively details the landscape, possibly even making for a snowball fight.  The FOMC meeting, which will culminate in the last