Weekly Commentary Archives - Robertson Stephens

Softening Data, Strong AI Demand: A Market Searching For Direction

Last week, stock prices were up and bond prices were down (yields up). The MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI EAFE indices outperformed the S&P 500. The best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy, utilities, and consumer staples. Across U.S. Russell style and market-cap indices, mid-cap growth performed best, but the value factor led more broadly. As for fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.69% over the week, and the 2s/10s Treasury yield spread steepened to +52 bps. High-yield bond spreads were nearly flat at 265 bps and still remain well below the 2025 high of 453 bps.

Is Your Equity Comp Getting a Fair Look?

Strong Economy, Sour Mood: Why Consumers Aren’t Feeling the Boom

Consumer inflation decelerated slightly in July, new jobless claims are running well below the levels of 2025, third quarter US economic growth is estimated at approximately 3.5% and average hourly earnings are growing 3.2%. Additionally, the S&P 500 hit a new market high last Thursday, August 13. One would think that all is good but . . . the consumer says otherwise. The day after that new S&P high, the preliminary Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment for August fell almost 8%, returning to the lower levels of consumer confidence that became evident in the spring of 2025.