Economic Commentary – April 14, 2025
It is hard to believe that not quite two weeks have passed since the world seemed to change on a dime on April 2. Much like an 8.0 magnitude earthquake, to which the Trump tariff announcements bear a considerable resemblance, a series of aftershocks continues to rattle consumers, businesses, and markets. However, unlike an earthquake, all […]
Investment Commentary – April 14, 2025
Executive Summary A few themes jumped out to us last week including softer inflation readings and encouraging bank earnings season reports and guidance. The parts of the consumer price index (CPI) report that had the softest pricing were more discretionary items like airfare and lodging away from home. Shelter came in at only 0.2% m/m, […]
Tax Loss Harvesting, 529 Plans, and Risk Tolerance During Market Volatility
Volatile Times: Tax Loss Harvesting, 529 Plans, and Risk Tolerance Many investors have sold positions over the past few weeks to lock in capital losses. It’s important to distinguish capital losses from charitable deductions, as the two operate differently from an income tax perspective. Tax loss harvesting allows losses to be carried forward indefinitely until […]
Wealth Planning Opportunities in a Market Downturn: Risks and Strategies
Downturn Wealth Planning Threats and Opportunities The market is in a correction and flirting with bear market territory. Given this environment, assessing potential risks and taking advantage of planning opportunities is important. Start by reviewing loan-to-asset ratios where portfolios are pledged against lines of credit. A $1 million pledged asset line against a $2 million […]
Investment Commentary – April 7, 2025
Executive Summary Corporates and consumers have become more conservative recently based on recent data, which has yet to reflect the full impact of the recent Tariff Tax Turmoil. The good news is that we have a largely domestic, services-oriented economy, and while tariffs are disruptive in the short-term, the impact can be contained if the […]
Economic Commentary – April 7, 2025
The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2025 have increased. Some forecasters now put the probability at 60%-70%, which would seem to establish a recession as the base case forecast; I do not understand how it cannot. Yet few forecasters are saying that they expect a recession this year — yet. […]
Economic Commentary – March 31, 2025
This wake-up is a bit more than usual, an old-fashioned jangly alarm clock disrupting a fitful sleep. Significant tariffs will be imposed by the US this week on a wide variety of products and trading partners. At the same time, previously imposed trade actions (especially steel and aluminum tariffs), federal employment reductions, and federal health […]
Investment Commentary – March 31, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, stocks declined, and bonds rallied as fresh signs of economic weakness and renewed inflation fears disturbed markets. The S&P 500’s closed down 4.4% over the quarter. In particular, Tech Mega-Caps were hit hard. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell approximately 10 basis points to ~4.25% as investors sought safety. A […]
Rising Costs, Roth IRAs, and Social Security: Wealth Planning in an Inflationary Environment
Rising Costs, Roth IRAs, and Social Security Expectations With inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty this year, building a buffer for rising costs may be wise. To prepare for a potential price surge, we recommend increasing projected living expenses this year and next. For those feeling the strain of higher costs, now is a good time […]
BOI Reporting Update: FinCEN Removes Requirement for U.S. Companies
Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI) Reporting Update FinCEN has removed the requirement for U.S. companies and persons to report beneficial ownership information (BOI) under the Corporate Transparency Act, effective March 2, 2025. Now, only foreign entities registering to do business in the U.S. must report BOI, but they are not required to disclose U.S. persons as […]
Investment Commentary – March 24, 2025
What Happened US equity markets finished the week up after four consecutive weeks of negative returns. Markets were focused on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which showed that the Fed expected slightly slower economic growth and slightly higher inflation. However, Chairman Powell calmed market fears at the news conference after the FOMC meeting, where […]
Economic Commentary – March 24, 2025
With the Trump Administration’s “major” reciprocal tariffs scheduled to be announced — and possibly take effect— on April 2, the focus is increasingly on the possible production and employment impacts of tariffs. The Administration itself has warned that there will be an “adjustment” period for the economy, and it is the nature of those adjustments, as perhaps […]