Monitoring Inflation Shock Potentially Transitioning to Growth Shock
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell for the third week in a row, with the Nasdaq down eight times in the last nine weeks. The dollar strengthened against the major currencies as investors moved toward safer assets and ended at its strongest level of the year albeit still down year over year. Rising oil prices […]
Behavioral Biases and Wealth Erosion: The Silent Risk of Emotional Financial Decisions
Recent economic reports indicate that while the most extreme inflationary spikes have subsided, the path to price stability remains complex. February’s data showed headline inflation at 2.4%, yet the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric—the PCE index—remains more stubborn. According to the Wall Street Journal, this index held at 2.8% in January, with “core” inflation (excluding volatile food and energy) reaching 3.1%. […]
Week of March 15, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Data availability is critical to financial markets, economists and businesses and data can come from many organizations, including but not-exclusively agencies of the Federal Government. A number of well-established industries have created surveys and other forms of data collection with long track records; some examples are residential construction National Association of Home Builders Index), autos (the Michigan Survey of […]
Staying the Course: Wealth Planning Amid Geopolitical Volatility and Rising Oil Prices
Geopolitical headlines over the last week have been nothing short of jarring. As news of the joint U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran continues to dominate the global cycle, it is natural for feelings of anxiety to surface. We are seeing a direct impact on energy markets, with oil prices surging and the critical […]
Triple Whammy Shocks: Geopolitical, Labor and Private Credit
Executive Summary Last week, stock and bond prices were down and yields were up. Three simultaneous shocks are feeding off each other: oil at $100/bbl (up 35% in a week), a February jobs loss of 92,000 versus expectations of +60,000 growth, and a third major private credit gating event. Bonds are not providing their usual cushion because the […]
Week of March 08, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
War always creates economic turmoil. It changes prices, adds to national debt and heightens uncertainty. As such, war may impact economic decision-making even in markets not apparently directly affected by combat. One example of such effect may be provided by the US housing market, where rumors of a recovery have, in the last 12 months, too often proved to be just […]
How to Help Your Children Buy Real Estate in Today’s Market
The domestic real estate market, which has remained largely stagnant for the past twenty-four months, may show signs of movement. Recent data, including reports from the Wall Street Journal, highlight a downward trend in interest rates, with rates reaching their lowest levels in several years. While this shift suggests a potential uptick in home sales, it does not […]
Market Leadership Broadens as Rotation Continues
Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index declined -0.8% in February, but the headline masked broad underlying strength. The equal-weighted S&P 500 gained +3.5%, Large Cap Value rose +2.6%, and the Russell 2000 added +0.8%, as the rotation toward smaller and more value-oriented companies continued. In contrast, Large Cap Growth declined -3.4% and the Nasdaq fell -2.3% as […]
Week of March 1, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The extremely valid question regarding the impact of war in the Middle East on the global economy simply cannot be well-answered at this time. Several immediate areas of concern are clear — oil and gas supplies and prices, transportation flows and costs in the Red Sea (headed to the Suez Canal) and the Persian Gulf (Straits of Hormuz), and […]
AI Disruption Pauses While the US Economy Remains Resilient
Executive Summary Last week, the S&P 500 returned +1.0%. Markets continued to be whipsawed as traders assess the impact of AI across a number of industries; oil rose and perceived inflation risks kept a lid on bond prices as the U.S. continues a substantial military buildup in the Middle East. Late in the week, the U.S. Supreme Court […]
Estate Plan Communication: Why Talking to Your Family Is the Most Overlooked Planning Step
An estate plan should be more than the legal minimum. Foundational documents such as wills, revocable trusts, powers of attorney, and healthcare proxies are a great start. For more affluent families, additional trusts and advanced structures may further enhance tax efficiency and asset protection. Keeping those structures aligned with current tax law and properly modeling liquidity are […]
Week of February 22, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
“Head-spinning” is the word for the week. The Supreme Court rejection of many (not all) of President Trump’s tariffs served to sweep under the rug an almost embarrassing scramble to explain how the fourth quarter GDP estimate came in so far below projections, while the broad-based measure of inflation known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures […]