August Leaderboard Rattled By Inflation and AI Risks
Strong earnings, broad market participation, and resilient economic growth have supported equities, but rising Treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and elevated valuations could shape the next phase of market performance.
Labor’s Long Evolution: Productivity, Prosperity, and the Future of Work
A good chart raises as many questions as it provides answers. This one is no exception. Numerous developments across this same 1979-to-present time period have occurred that may have something to say about the picture (which, by the way, is a picture that has been painted quite consistently by other data and other researchers). The first generation IBM Personal Computer was released in August 1981. In the 1980s, it became apparent that the creation of value (production of goods and services) in technology sectors was less labor-intensive than other industries. In the 1990s, stock options moved out of the executive suite and into regular worker compensation in technology, finance, and select other industries and occupations, supplementing hourly pay and salaries. Union membership peaked in 1979 at approximately 25% of the labor force — with indirect influence on as much as an additional quarter to one-third of workers— and fell steadily over the ensuing 4 decades. US labor force growth slowed from roughly 2.5% at the start of the 1980s to near zero today, while at the same time, US corporate profitability rose more than 6% on average and the corporate profits share of GDP rose from approximately 7% to more than 13% in 2025. The productivity of American workers has consistently been credited with the dominant economic growth and relatively low inflation of the US economy compared to other developed economies in the world, and so the question looms large today: Will this pattern continue, what will it require and how does the American workforce best benefit from its critical role in economic expansion?
Opportunity Zone Deadline Approaches: Is Your Tax Plan Ready?
For taxpayers with Opportunity Zone investments under the original program, the deferral window closes on December 31. Any capital gain deferred into a Qualified Opportunity Fund must be recognized as income this year, regardless of whether the investment has been sold or produced any cash to cover the tax. That gap between when the gain is taxed and when cash is actually on hand can create a liquidity crunch, and it’s worth getting ahead of before year-end.
PPLI: The Current Hot Topic for the Ultra-Wealthy
The Wall Street Journal recently spotlighted Private Placement Life Insurance (PPLI), describing it as a “Roth IRA on steroids” for wealthy Americans seeking tax-free growth. While the headline captures the imagination, PPLI is not a loophole or an aggressive tax shelter. In the eyes of the tax code, it is a variable universal life (VUL) insurance contract designed for Qualified Purchasers and Accredited Investors. It replaces the high-commission, off-the-shelf retail product with an institutionally priced, insurance wrapper that can invest in almost any asset class but is primarily used for tax-inefficient alternative assets.
AI Momentum Meets Rate Hike Risk
Last week, stock prices were up and bond prices were down (yields up). The MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI EAFE indices outperformed the S&P 500. The best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy, utilities, and consumer staples. Across U.S. Russell style and market-cap indices, mid-cap growth performed best, but the value factor led more broadly.
As for fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.69% over the week, and the 2s/10s Treasury yield spread steepened to +52 bps. High-yield bond spreads were nearly flat at 265 bps and still remain well below the 2025 high of 453 bps.
Warsh Draws a Line: Inflation Fight Back in Focus
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to take back a bit of control over the interest rate narrative. He successfully communicated — for the first time during his short tenure — his views on the economy and his concerns about inflation. Probably the most interesting part of the speech for bond traders was his reluctance to use the modest improvements in recent US inflation numbers as an argument for having patience with the current approximately 3.5% pace of price increases. For others, his amazingly clear statement that “monetary policy cannot easily be described as restrictive” was long-awaited insight into his thinking about monetary policy (and a reminder of the hawkish policy stances he was once widely known for.)
Long – Term Treasuries Are Misbehaving
Last week, stock prices were up and bond prices were down (yields up). The MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI EAFE indices outperformed the S&P 500. The best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy, utilities, and consumer staples. Across U.S. Russell style and market-cap indices, mid-cap growth performed best, but the value factor led more broadly.
As for fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.69% over the week, and the 2s/10s Treasury yield spread steepened to +52 bps. High-yield bond spreads were nearly flat at 265 bps and still remain well below the 2025 high of 453 bps.
Choosing a Corporate Trustee: Why Separation of Duties Can Protect Your Family
One of the more important decisions when setting up a trust is deciding who will actually administer it. Sometimes a family member is well suited to the role, but if not, there are reasons to consider a corporate trustee instead: no relative able or willing to take it on, complex assets that call for professional management, concern about future incapacity, or a blended family where a neutral party can help reduce friction. A corporate trustee is simply an institution, not an individual, that takes on the legal responsibility of managing a trust’s assets and carrying out its terms.
Jackson Hole Under the Spotlight: Can the Fed Restore Confidence?
The speech by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve on the last full day of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is always a highly anticipated event. This year it arguably carries more immediate significance than usual, as Chairman Warsh’s words will be delivered in the shadow of both his previous FOMC press conference and the recent actions of Secretary Scott Bessent— neither of which was particularly well received by global bond markets. 30-year Treasury yields often serve as a vote on the credibility of both Warsh and Bessent and will be closely watched throughout the week.
Softening Data, Strong AI Demand: A Market Searching For Direction
Last week, stock prices were up and bond prices were down (yields up). The MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI EAFE indices outperformed the S&P 500. The best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy, utilities, and consumer staples. Across U.S. Russell style and market-cap indices, mid-cap growth performed best, but the value factor led more broadly.
As for fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.69% over the week, and the 2s/10s Treasury yield spread steepened to +52 bps. High-yield bond spreads were nearly flat at 265 bps and still remain well below the 2025 high of 453 bps.
Is Your Equity Comp Getting a Fair Look?
More and more workers are benefiting from equity compensation, and it’s not just limited to the C-suite and senior executives. Mid-level employees often accumulate meaningful positions in their company’s stock. Many of these employees rarely receive guidance on what to do with this compensation, including potential concentration risks and tax implications. Those with options often […]
Strong Economy, Sour Mood: Why Consumers Aren’t Feeling the Boom
Consumer inflation decelerated slightly in July, new jobless claims are running well below the levels of 2025, third quarter US economic growth is estimated at approximately 3.5% and average hourly earnings are growing 3.2%. Additionally, the S&P 500 hit a new market high last Thursday, August 13. One would think that all is good but . . . the consumer says otherwise. The day after that new S&P high, the preliminary Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment for August fell almost 8%, returning to the lower levels of consumer confidence that became evident in the spring of 2025.