Could an Unknown Relative Ruin Your Estate Plan?
DNA services such as 23andMe have made it far more common for biological children – sometimes entirely unknown to the family – to surface after a parent’s death and assert inheritance rights. While this remains an unlikely scenario, it is more plausible today than ever before. Many state laws rely heavily on biological relationships, especially […]
Markets Rally Through Data Fog as Fed Expectations Drive Sentiment
Executive Summary Markets extended their rally in October, rising for a seventh straight month despite intra-month volatility and uncertainty around a December rate cut. The government shutdown has ended, but it has left a gap in economic data, making it difficult to analyze the economy. Despite this data vacuum, optimism around a third consecutive rate […]
Economic Momentum Builds as Companies Shift Focus to 2026
Lessened concern about consumer spending weakness in December, and optimism about end-of-year economic growth, risks overlooking the intense focus of American business on 2026 profitability. Adjustments to the global trade changes introduced by tariff policy and other actions continue to unfold, and labor force decisions for the first half of the coming year — always top-of-mind […]
Markets Rebound as Fed Signals December Rate Cut
Executive Summary Last week, the equity market staged a broad rebound, recovering a portion of November’s losses. The rally was sparked by commentary from the Federal Reserve suggesting a December rate cut is back on the table. Major equity indices rallied sharply, with gains spread across sectors and factors. Small-cap stocks were the standout performers, […]
Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending: A Holiday Season Disconnect
Economists have long cautioned against using consumer sentiment surveys to forecast consumer spending. Statistically, income growth is the overwhelming determinant of consumer expenditures, with a lesser, but significant, contributory role played by changes in wealth. Retirement accounts and home equity constitute more than 60% of US Household wealth and these two important components of wealth, like […]
Charitable Giving This Season
As we enter the final weeks of the year, it is an important moment to revisit charitable giving strategies, especially given the meaningful tax changes taking effect in 2026 under OBBBA. For those who donate regularly, front-loading charitable gifts this month may help maximize deductions before the new limitations begin. In 2026, OBBBA will introduce […]
September Metrics Establish Baseline Amid Limited Government Reporting
Economic data for September continues to gush out like water at the end of a fire hose. The problem seems to be that September feels like a LONG time ago. Nevertheless, reports on September employment (last week), and Producer Prices and Retail Sales (both this week), help to establish the base on which the economy is […]
The Greatest Holiday Gift is a Well-Communicated Plan
It’s that time of year again! The holidays give many families a chance to gather in one place, creating an opportunity to have conversations about the future. Even a small step now – sharing your thoughts on aging, care, or estate plans – could help prevent confusion, conflict, or stress down the road for your […]
Hawkish Fed, Weakening Labor Data, and Markets Pushing Cuts to 2026
Executive Summary The recent odds of a December cut have been going down to 44% and a 56% chance of a hold. With that said, there are now three cuts priced into 2026, so the bond market more or less is pushing out the rate cut into next year. Regardless, the Fed is becoming increasingly […]
A Flood of Delayed Data Could Cloud the Economic Picture
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) probably haven’t felt quite this warmly welcomed in a very long time. Memories of various proposals to eliminate or sharply curtail reports on prices and labor markets (as recently as August), have been forgotten in the hot anticipation of sorely missed economic data […]
Year-End Tax Priorities Before OBBBA Changes Kick In
As 2025 draws to a close, this year’s tax review carries added urgency. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law in July, made several individual tax rate cuts permanent – averting a reversal of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). However, beginning January 1, 2026, a series of new provisions […]
From SNAP to Skies: The Real Economy Feels the Shutdown
There are a lot of under-appreciated economic impacts from the US federal government shutdown. For example, the suspension of SNAP payments not only catastrophically affects poor families and seniors but also the grocers and farmers who supply the food that would be purchased with the SNAP monies. Federal worker incomes are the lifeblood of many […]