Q1 Shocks: Energy, Inflation, Growth?
Highlights: Q1 2026 Performance Equities The first quarter was eventful for markets. Stocks traded higher to start the year, with the S&P 500 posting a modest gain in January. However, the market traded lower in March due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz closure, which led to a […]
Forgotten Annuities, Found Opportunities
A fair amount of people are sitting on old annuity contracts they haven’t thought about in years. These contracts typically carry values between $50,000 and $250,000 – and are often modest relative to a household’s broader balance sheet. Sometimes annuities were purchased years ago from a family friend entering the insurance business, or as a simple tax-deferral vehicle that never got revisited. Because […]
Week of April 5, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Economist Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of bond market giant PIMCO, has a useful, intuitive way of thinking about exogenous shocks, i.e. unexpected events with unpredictable timing that occur outside of the normal framework of industries and national economies. He posits that there are three phases: An initial Phase One of, in the case of the Iranian War, […]
Roth Strategy, Earlier: The Planning Opportunity Behind “Trump Accounts”
Tax planning is often less about finding new strategies and more about applying familiar ones at the right time. In many cases, the timing of when income is recognized can have as much impact as the investment itself. A recent topic that fits into this broader idea is the concept of so called “Trump accounts.” […]
The Big Question for Markets: When Will the Middle East Conflict Be Resolved?
Executive Summary U.S. equity indexes finished a volatile, headline-driven week mixed, as a relatively light economic calendar left investors largely focused on shifting geopolitical developments, oil price volatility, and continued pressure on large-cap technology stocks. Equities rallied to start the week amid optimism that the conflict in the Middle East could de-escalate. However, sentiment deteriorated through the end of […]
Week of March 29, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) has gained considerable attention recently with a forecast for US inflation in 2026 well above 4% as a result of escalating oil prices and other consequences of the Iranian war. This forecast was contained in an interim economic outlook formulated sometime after the start of the conflict and published […]
Proposed “Millionaires Tax”: Should Washington Residents Worry?
Approved by the state legislature this month, Washington’s proposed Millionaires Tax would impose a 9.9% levy on household income exceeding $1 million annually. The bill will become law in April unless Governor Bob Ferguson vetoes it. Critically, the tax applies only to earnings above that threshold – not total income. If a household earns $1,000,500, only $500 […]
Strait of Hormuz: Risk Markets Veer Off the Straight and Narrow
U.S. equity indexes finished lower in a volatile week shaped by geopolitical tensions and resulting volatility in oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a somewhat hawkish interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared worst, declining 2.11%, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, which shed 2.07%. The S&P MidCap 400 Index held up best but […]
Week of March 22, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
As we enter week four of the Middle East War, with interest rate decisions by the Bank of England, the ECB (European Central Bank), and the Federal Reserve all recently put behind us (all of them choosing to leave rates unchanged) the near-term focus is on oil and gas prices and the Strait of Hormuz. […]
Monitoring Inflation Shock Potentially Transitioning to Growth Shock
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell for the third week in a row, with the Nasdaq down eight times in the last nine weeks. The dollar strengthened against the major currencies as investors moved toward safer assets and ended at its strongest level of the year albeit still down year over year. Rising oil prices […]
Behavioral Biases and Wealth Erosion: The Silent Risk of Emotional Financial Decisions
Recent economic reports indicate that while the most extreme inflationary spikes have subsided, the path to price stability remains complex. February’s data showed headline inflation at 2.4%, yet the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric—the PCE index—remains more stubborn. According to the Wall Street Journal, this index held at 2.8% in January, with “core” inflation (excluding volatile food and energy) reaching 3.1%. […]
Week of March 15, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Data availability is critical to financial markets, economists and businesses and data can come from many organizations, including but not-exclusively agencies of the Federal Government. A number of well-established industries have created surveys and other forms of data collection with long track records; some examples are residential construction National Association of Home Builders Index), autos (the Michigan Survey of […]