A Flood of Delayed Data Could Cloud the Economic Picture
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) probably haven’t felt quite this warmly welcomed in a very long time. Memories of various proposals to eliminate or sharply curtail reports on prices and labor markets (as recently as August), have been forgotten in the hot anticipation of sorely missed economic data […]
Year-End Tax Priorities Before OBBBA Changes Take Effect in 2026
As 2025 draws to a close, this year’s tax review carries added urgency. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law in July, made several individual tax rate cuts permanent – averting a reversal of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). However, beginning January 1, 2026, a series of new provisions […]
From SNAP to Skies: The Real Economy Feels the Shutdown
There are a lot of under-appreciated economic impacts from the US federal government shutdown. For example, the suspension of SNAP payments not only catastrophically affects poor families and seniors but also the grocers and farmers who supply the food that would be purchased with the SNAP monies. Federal worker incomes are the lifeblood of many […]
Earnings Strength Anchors a Volatile Market
Executive Summary The stock market has stayed resilient with sporadic pullbacks and shots of volatility. We expect this choppiness to continue into year-end. The real story remains the same: The economy has been resilient, the consumer has been resilient, and the Fed has cut rates in an economic expansion due to an increased focus on […]
Watching the Data: Growth Holds, Labor Questions Remain
In the aftermath of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last week, economic numbers available from non-federal government sources will be increasingly scrutinized for confirmation of continued U.S. economic strength. Fed Chairman Powell’s discussion of dissent on the FOMC regarding the future path for interest rates ( or, more accurately, the speed of future interest […]
S&P Gains Mask Underlying Market Exhaustion
Executive Summary Last week, large-capitalization S&P 500 stocks advanced 0.7%, but small stocks lagged. The three material items for the week included broadly positive big tech earnings, the Fed meeting featuring an expected 25 basis point (bps) cut, and the end of quantitative tightening[1] as of 12/1/25, along with a warning that another cut in […]
Building Financial Resilience During Layoffs: A Wealth Planning Guide for High Earners
The recent wave of corporate restructuring and white-collar layoffs – particularly in technology and other high-paying sectors – has reignited an important conversation: how to build true financial resilience. Wealth management often focuses on growth and long-term objectives, but periods of economic transition remind us that preserving flexibility and mitigating risk are equally critical components […]
Gambling Income and Taxes: What the NBA Betting Scandal Teaches Every Taxpayer
The recent NBA gambling scandal, which led to more than 30 arrests, has drawn widespread attention to the broader world of sports betting. The fraud involved players and coaches selling sensitive injury and lineup information for cash or a share of betting proceeds. In some cases, players allegedly influenced game outcomes – such as Miami Heat […]
Investment Commentary – October 27, 2025
Executive Summary Investors are gearing up for a pivotal week, as Big Tech earnings and an expected U.S. interest rate cut could set the country’s economic trajectory for the rest of the year. A cooler than expected inflation report on Friday sent stocks to fresh highs as traders bet the Federal Reserve will trim the cost of borrowing […]
Economic Commentary – October 27, 2025
It’s back to Trump Time, it’s Trade Time, All The Time. A successful tour of Asia to negotiate favorable trade deals would go a long way toward easing the concerns of the Federal Reserve — and the US business community — about the negative impacts on economic growth from trade confrontation. There is also the issue […]
Economic Commentary – October 20, 2025
The release of the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions —aka “The Beige Book”—received considerable attention last week. The Beige Book is always a useful document for economists and thought-leaders willing to go beyond the headlines and the mostly backward-looking economic statistics. Now, of course, the flow of backward-looking data from the […]
Investment Commentary – October 20, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned 1.1% for the week amid continued optimism around AI, a strong start to the earnings season, from large banks, and increasing hopes for further rate cuts from the Fed. Markets looked past trade tensions with China and emerging credit issues at regional banks as Fed Chair Powell signaled that the […]