Week of April 12, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
There is simply no way to spin this: the “affordability” metrics are ugly and likely to get uglier in the next two months. Inflation in the United States is running above 3% at the moment, a development that may indeed be “transitory” but nevertheless remains dispiriting and painful. In Europe, the magnitude of the upward push on prices from the […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: April 6, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including payroll numbers, healthcare jobs, unemployment rates, mortgage rates, and credit card delinquency rates.
Week of April 5, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Economist Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of bond market giant PIMCO, has a useful, intuitive way of thinking about exogenous shocks, i.e. unexpected events with unpredictable timing that occur outside of the normal framework of industries and national economies. He posits that there are three phases: An initial Phase One of, in the case of the Iranian War, […]
Week of March 29, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) has gained considerable attention recently with a forecast for US inflation in 2026 well above 4% as a result of escalating oil prices and other consequences of the Iranian war. This forecast was contained in an interim economic outlook formulated sometime after the start of the conflict and published […]
Week of March 22, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
As we enter week four of the Middle East War, with interest rate decisions by the Bank of England, the ECB (European Central Bank), and the Federal Reserve all recently put behind us (all of them choosing to leave rates unchanged) the near-term focus is on oil and gas prices and the Strait of Hormuz. […]
Beyond the Noise Podcast – Episode 1
Listen to Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz as they analyze the economy and markets amidst current geopolitical tensions.
FOMC Commentary – March 18, 2026
The culmination of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was a decision to leave the target range for the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.
Week of March 15, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
Data availability is critical to financial markets, economists and businesses and data can come from many organizations, including but not-exclusively agencies of the Federal Government. A number of well-established industries have created surveys and other forms of data collection with long track records; some examples are residential construction National Association of Home Builders Index), autos (the Michigan Survey of […]
Week of March 08, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
War always creates economic turmoil. It changes prices, adds to national debt and heightens uncertainty. As such, war may impact economic decision-making even in markets not apparently directly affected by combat. One example of such effect may be provided by the US housing market, where rumors of a recovery have, in the last 12 months, too often proved to be just […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: March 6, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including oil, natural gas, and payrolls.
Week of March 1, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
The extremely valid question regarding the impact of war in the Middle East on the global economy simply cannot be well-answered at this time. Several immediate areas of concern are clear — oil and gas supplies and prices, transportation flows and costs in the Red Sea (headed to the Suez Canal) and the Persian Gulf (Straits of Hormuz), and […]
Week of February 22, 2026 – Weekly Economic Commentary
“Head-spinning” is the word for the week. The Supreme Court rejection of many (not all) of President Trump’s tariffs served to sweep under the rug an almost embarrassing scramble to explain how the fourth quarter GDP estimate came in so far below projections, while the broad-based measure of inflation known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures […]