Economic Commentary – February 10, 2025
The most notable number for this week is the number from Friday of last week— but NOT the nonfarm payrolls number, despite its importance. The Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence caught almost everyone unaware, both the decline in the figure and, especially, the sharp spike in one-year inflation expectations. Although there has been much complaining […]
FOMC Commentary – January 29, 2025
By Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced today it would leave the target Feds Funds interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. Although financial markets expressed some mild disappointment that rates were being held steady, the announcement was widely anticipated. Much has been written about today’s FOMC Interest Rate Decision, marking the […]
Five Near Term Market Themes to Watch
By Stuart Katz, Chief Investment Officer January 27, 2025 – Last week’s inauguration activities in Washington mark Donald Trump’s return to the White House. As the second Trump administration starts, the market is looking ahead to what changes may take place in the coming years. Today, we briefly examine five key themes investors are monitoring […]
2025 and Beyond: Investment and Wealth Planning Outlook Webinar
Jan 24, 2025 – Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz and Head of Wealth Planning Mallon FitzPatrick have a conversation moderated by Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty as they offer their perspective on markets and wealth planning. Disclosures Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not […]
Economic Commentary – January 27, 2025
This week, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is expected to introduce a new monetary policy concept: The Pause. Of course, there is no such theory called “The Pause,” and there is not much theory behind this (in)action. Monetarists believe there is a theory that governs the correct level of money supply for the level of […]
Economic Commentary – January 21, 2025
Some of you will remember the famous quote from the film “Apocalypse Now”: “I love the smell of napalm in the morning.” You can be forgiven for thinking this might be the new, intentionally theatrical motto of trade negotiators everywhere. Toss a few incendiary bombs (words) and see what happens. While this is not the […]
Home Is Where the Heart Is
By Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist January 14, 2025 – Economists, lenders and policy analysts are given to talking about the US housing market in notably clinical terms. A blizzard of monthly data on, for example, “housing starts,” “building permits,” and “new home sales” (from the US Census Bureau), “existing home sales” (from the National […]
Economic Commentary – January 13, 2025
It should be a doozy of a week. Financial markets are continuing to digest the extremely strong US nonfarm employment numbers from Friday while contemplating the release of a full load of inflation data. Strong economic growth going into the first quarter seems well established, although, in truth, the announcement of 256,000 jobs created in […]
FOMC Commentary – December 18, 2024
By Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist Confirming recent expectations in financial markets, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a further 25bps cut in the Fed Funds rate while changing projections for rate cuts in 2025. The Fed Funds target range is now 4.25%-4.5%. In the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the members of the FOMC […]
FOMC Commentary – November 7, 2024
By Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist Today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced a 25 bps Fed Funds rate cut, resetting the target Fed Funds rate to 4.5-4.75%. This represents a full 75 bps reduction in short term rates since the Fed began to move monetary policy to a more “neutral” […]
Recent Thoughts on the Fed Rate Cut
September 30, 2024 Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz and Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty discuss their thoughts on the most recent Fed rate cut. Disclosures Investment advisory services offered through Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC (“Robertson Stephens”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute […]
FOMC Commentary – September 18, 2024
By Jeanette Garretty, Chief Economist The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a cut in the Federal Funds target rate by 50 bps to a target range of 4.75%-5.0%. At the same time, the FOMC announcement emphasized the continuing strength of the US economy, as well as the fact that while inflation has cooled considerably, […]