Economic Commentary – April 7, 2025
The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2025 have increased. Some forecasters now put the probability at 60%-70%, which would seem to establish a recession as the base case forecast; I do not understand how it cannot. Yet few forecasters are saying that they expect a recession this year — yet. […]
Market Recap: April 3, 2025
Watch Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz discuss the recent tariffs announcement and its impact on markets.
Economic Commentary – March 31, 2025
This wake-up is a bit more than usual, an old-fashioned jangly alarm clock disrupting a fitful sleep. Significant tariffs will be imposed by the US this week on a wide variety of products and trading partners. At the same time, previously imposed trade actions (especially steel and aluminum tariffs), federal employment reductions, and federal health […]
Q1 2025 Economic Recap
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides a recap for Q1 2025. She discusses consumer confidence, personal income, Federal government employment, job creation, and tariffs.
Economic Commentary – March 24, 2025
With the Trump Administration’s “major” reciprocal tariffs scheduled to be announced — and possibly take effect— on April 2, the focus is increasingly on the possible production and employment impacts of tariffs. The Administration itself has warned that there will be an “adjustment” period for the economy, and it is the nature of those adjustments, as perhaps […]
FOMC Commentary – March 19, 2025
FOMC Interest Rate Announcement, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Fed Chairman Powell Press Conference There were a few surprises in the Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate decision this morning. The top line number – the Fed Funds target rate—was left unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, as expected. However, the less visible but certainly significant decision to […]
Economic Commentary – March 17, 2025
A consensus is growing that the first quarter’s economic growth has slowed to 1%, possibly less. As would be expected, this has taken some of the heat out of the inflation fire, making the Federal Reserve’s job considerably more straightforward (“easier” is not the word I would choose to use.) However, the effects of recent US […]
Economic Commentary – March 10, 2025
It is a measure of how worried investors are about economic growth when Fed Chairman Powell pushes the equity markets UP by signaling no that interest rate cuts are coming any time soon. A few short months ago, this message from the Fed would have been viewed as a cold, wet blanket on a smoking hot […]
Economic Commentary – March 3, 2025
The data keeps piling up on the side of economic caution and weakness for this first quarter of 2025. Retail sales, residential real estate (including home improvement), consumer spending (including on services), business spending, and inventories all have indicated a slower pace for US economic activity for the start of the year, coming off a […]
Economic Commentary – February 24, 2025
Was last Friday’s US Purchasing Managers Index for Services the proverbial shot across the bow? It was certainly an attention-grabber, coming in below expectations and indicating the first monthly contraction in the service sector in two years. Although it is not unusual to see a certain amount of drop-off in January spending following a robust holiday […]
Economic Commentary – February 18, 2025
It is more than a bit unusual, in an economy growing almost 3% and an unemployment rate at 4%, to suddenly see so many Google (and ChatGPT) searches on the subject of US Unemployment Benefits. Normally, questions about unemployment benefits materialize when an economy is weakening, the unemployment rate is rising and in the context […]
Economic Commentary – February 10, 2025
The most notable number for this week is the number from Friday of last week— but NOT the nonfarm payrolls number, despite its importance. The Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence caught almost everyone unaware, both the decline in the figure and, especially, the sharp spike in one-year inflation expectations. Although there has been much complaining […]