Investment Commentary – July 28, 2025
Executive Summary We believe the tariff situation represents more of a consumption tax that will be more similar to a one-time price adjustment than stoking runaway inflation expectations. We also believe that housing is an important component of inflation metrics, where home prices have been recently deflating across the country, and mortgage rates remain elevated. […]
Investment Commentary – July 21, 2025
Executive Summary Various key trends the Investment Office is monitoring U.S. financials sector earnings season kicked off last week strong. The MSCI EAFE Large Cap value index has nearly 37% weight to financials, which creates concentration risk. This week we have Eurozone and U.S. preliminary PMIs, more S&P500 earnings releases including Google and Tesla. […]
2025 Mid-Year Outlook
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz break down what happened in the first half of 2025 and provide their outlook for the remainder of the year.
Lessons from the ’90s: How AI Is Powering a New Investment Cycle
July 15, 2025 Technology spending is accelerating at the fastest pace in decades. Figure 1 shows investment in information processing equipment and software grew +14% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, the fastest pace since the late 1990s. During the dot-com era, investment in computers and software grew over +15% YoY before collapsing in the early […]
Investment Commentary – July 14, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, there was little difference in performance between large-caps and small-caps, while growth stocks held up modestly better than value. Investors have begun to follow airline earnings announcements as something of a bellwether of consumer strength. Delta Air Lines provided a supportive full-year 2025 earnings outlook—after withdrawing its guidance in the wake […]
Investment Commentary – July 7, 2025
Executive Summary Major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher. Smaller-cap indexes performed best, with the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 indexes climbing 2.85% and 3.52%, respectively, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which advanced 2.30%. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite both closed at all-time highs for the second week […]
Investment Commentary – June 30, 2025
In the second quarter, the S&P 500 was up ~10%. The U.S. dollar has had one of its worst starts to a year on record. It is on pace to fall approximately 8% in Q2 alone. Almost every asset class is negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. To put the first half of 2025 simply, […]
Investment Commentary – June 23, 2025
What Happened Geopolitics took center stage last week as Israel and Iran continued to launch missiles at each other, culminating with the U.S. joining the war with strategic strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. Markets had initially taken the Israel-Iran hostilities in stride, rallying early in the week. However, as the possibility of […]
Investment Commentary – June 16, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, stocks were down and bonds up (price up/yield down). The MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed the S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE. The best performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy, healthcare, and utilities. Across U.S. Russell style & market cap indices, large-cap value did the best, and the value factor […]
Corporate Earnings Off to a Solid Start in 2025
June 17, 2025 – The stock market’s performance is a function of two variables: earnings and valuations. A company generates profits, and investors assign a multiple to those profits, such as 15x or 20x earnings, to determine the company’s valuation. This year, earnings have been in the spotlight as policy uncertainty around tariffs and global […]
Investment Commentary – June 9, 2025
Executive Summary U.S. stocks closed within ~2% of their all-time highest level since February 2025, lifted by a combination of resilient jobs data and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Bond Yields climbed as investors recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve policy, following economic signals that eased fears of an imminent slowdown and fluctuating levels […]
Investment Commentary – June 2, 2025
Executive Summary For the month of May, the S&P 500 returned over 6%, its best monthly performance since November 2023. Financial markets have weathered two months of policy-driven volatility, only to end up roughly where they started. After a nearly 20% decline from late February to early April, the S&P 500 has regained most of […]