Economic Commentary – May 19, 2025
Moody’s lowering of the US sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa was not entirely surprising; S&P cut its rating of the US as a borrower from its highest rating of AAA to AA+ many years ago, as did Fitch’s in 2023. (Note: there are ratings of instruments and ratings of borrowers, and both can […]
Economic Commentary – May 12, 2025
The economic news starts to get interesting on Tuesday, and will continue from there, kicked off by the Consumer Price Numbers for April. It will be a long wait for perhaps the most substantive information on the impact of tariffs — the second quarter earnings reports, which will start in July— but hard data for the […]
Five Charts For The Week That Was: May 9, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including US Jobs Numbers, container freight rates, US Dollar, and US Exports to China.
FOMC Commentary – May 7, 2025
No surprises in the official announcement: The Fed leaves interest rates unchanged and stands ready to respond if economic conditions demand, which they do not yet. With employment growth still strong and inflation trends calm enough to claim a continued movement towards the all-important 2% target, there was no reason for the Federal Open Market Committee […]
Economic Commentary – May 5, 2025
A recent meeting with a Pentagon officer yielded a phrase that he surely would be amused to see deployed to economic thinking: “Fog and Friction.” The conventional application of the term is to the battlefield, and refers to the difficulty of gathering relevant intelligence (fog) to build a strategy, accompanied by the challenge of tactical execution […]
Economic Commentary – April 28, 2025
This is a good week to let the data — there will be a lot of it— do the driving. And it is likely to be something of a joy ride, the trick being to buckle up and keep an eye on the month being reported. A majority of the data will continue to be […]
Five Charts For The Week That Was: April 28, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including global growth, tax revenues, and real estate.
Economic Commentary – April 21, 2025
Timing is everything, so the saying goes. Economists would paraphrase this by saying “time frame is everything;” play around with the time frame enough and one can perhaps prove just about anything, in co-conspiracy with the ability of statistics to do the same. As world economies march towards May, serious questions about the relevant time […]
Economic Commentary – April 14, 2025
It is hard to believe that not quite two weeks have passed since the world seemed to change on a dime on April 2. Much like an 8.0 magnitude earthquake, to which the Trump tariff announcements bear a considerable resemblance, a series of aftershocks continues to rattle consumers, businesses, and markets. However, unlike an earthquake, all […]
Ten Charts to Think About Instead of Taxes
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides a recap for Q1 2025. She discusses consumer confidence, personal income, Federal government employment, job creation, and tariffs.
Economic Commentary – April 7, 2025
The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession in 2025 have increased. Some forecasters now put the probability at 60%-70%, which would seem to establish a recession as the base case forecast; I do not understand how it cannot. Yet few forecasters are saying that they expect a recession this year — yet. […]
Market Recap: April 3, 2025
Watch Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz discuss the recent tariffs announcement and its impact on markets.