Economic Commentary – October 20, 2025
The release of the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions —aka “The Beige Book”—received considerable attention last week. The Beige Book is always a useful document for economists and thought-leaders willing to go beyond the headlines and the mostly backward-looking economic statistics. Now, of course, the flow of backward-looking data from the […]
Economic Commentary – October 13, 2025
It is a strange, somewhat unreal moment. A holiday that isn’t quite a holiday, a federal government that is mostly shut down while state governments go about their business, and government inflation reports that may or may not happen. Analysts have now been called back to the Bureau of Labor Statistics in something of a […]
Economic Commentary – October 6, 2025
The US Government Shutdown continues, swamping most of the other economic storylines. However, the ADP employment report from last week, showing 32,000 jobs lost in September (excluding any federal employment job losses, which are not counted by ADP), continues to reverberate. Whether a result of undeniable negative signals coming from job markets or of elected officials […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: October 3, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including US consumer sentiment, vehicle sales, US agriculture, oil prices, and private sector jobs.
Economic Commentary – September 29 2025
It will be quite some time before the most significant effects of a less restrictive monetary policy become apparent. New home sales, for example, have already picked up as lower mortgage rates have combined with builder incentives to lower purchase prices, yet the far-larger market for existing home sales remains constrained by high price points. Car […]
Economic Commentary – September 22 2025
Amid the focus last week on the FOMC meeting and the interest rate decision, the threat of a government shutdown wasn’t a dominant issue; there is only so much conflict one can handle at one time. However, the looming deadline for funding the federal government after the current fiscal year ends on September 30 is now […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: September 19, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including inflation, US consumer sentiment and demand, as well as job revisions and jobless claims.
FOMC Commentary – September 17, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the Federal Funds rate target range by 25bps, from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%. The context provided for this move was as important as the interest rate cut itself, slowing employment growth but continued inflation at levels “somewhat” higher than desirable.
Economic Commentary – September 15, 2025
The burning question this week is NOT “What Will the Federal Reserve Do?” It is the question of how bad the US labor market really is, and it is a question that will not be answered. But it will be much discussed, especially on Wednesday, during Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s press conference following the Federal Open […]
Economic Commentary – September 8, 2025
The data being released in the next few days should cause a certain amount of acid reflux, both in global financial markets and in Washington, D.C. One statistic that seldom generates much attention outside of economic circles is the annual benchmark revision (think of it as a “true-up” with all the now-available data) in US […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: September 5, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including inflation, the US consumer, the housing market, and job openings.
Economic Commentary – September 2, 2025
Lost in the sigh of relief that the inflation numbers (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, or “PCE”) last Friday weren’t all that bad was the fact that inflation has conclusively ceased its movement to the Federal Reserve target of 2%. Given that the Federal Reserve has not changed its target inflation rate, it would normally be assumed […]