Economic Commentary – June 9, 2025
The growing contrast between business sentiment, largely expressed via interviews and industry reports, and “hard” macroeconomic data like employment prompts the immediate thought that “Something’s Gotta Give.” Further amplifying the uneasy tenor of the current moment is the apparent difficulty the Bureau of Labor Statistics is having in getting its monthly survey of nonfarm payrolls […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: June 6, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including oil prices, the US Dollar, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index, and employment.
Economic Commentary – June 2, 2025
Amidst all the confusion as to which US tariffs are in place, which are in deferment and which have never come into being — not to mention which retaliatory actions by US trading partners are in effect, or threatened—- it is not entirely surprising that inflation has not been the big story that was anticipated. […]
Economic Commentary – May 27, 2025
Congress is on Memorial Day holiday until June 3 (yes, they do get better benefits than most people!), although returning to their districts and (maybe) meeting with constituents may be anything but a holiday for Representatives and Senators this year. Emotions continue to run high over the economic provisions of the House-passed tax and spending bill, […]
Five Charts (and a Bonus) for the Week That Was: May 23, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 (and a bonus) economic charts covering topics including federal debt, the bond market, long-term treasury yields, household debt, and US labor markets.
Economic Commentary – May 19, 2025
Moody’s lowering of the US sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa was not entirely surprising; S&P cut its rating of the US as a borrower from its highest rating of AAA to AA+ many years ago, as did Fitch’s in 2023. (Note: there are ratings of instruments and ratings of borrowers, and both can […]
Economic Commentary – May 12, 2025
The economic news starts to get interesting on Tuesday, and will continue from there, kicked off by the Consumer Price Numbers for April. It will be a long wait for perhaps the most substantive information on the impact of tariffs — the second quarter earnings reports, which will start in July— but hard data for the […]
Five Charts For The Week That Was: May 9, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including US Jobs Numbers, container freight rates, US Dollar, and US Exports to China.
FOMC Commentary – May 7, 2025
No surprises in the official announcement: The Fed leaves interest rates unchanged and stands ready to respond if economic conditions demand, which they do not yet. With employment growth still strong and inflation trends calm enough to claim a continued movement towards the all-important 2% target, there was no reason for the Federal Open Market Committee […]
Economic Commentary – May 5, 2025
A recent meeting with a Pentagon officer yielded a phrase that he surely would be amused to see deployed to economic thinking: “Fog and Friction.” The conventional application of the term is to the battlefield, and refers to the difficulty of gathering relevant intelligence (fog) to build a strategy, accompanied by the challenge of tactical execution […]
Economic Commentary – April 28, 2025
This is a good week to let the data — there will be a lot of it— do the driving. And it is likely to be something of a joy ride, the trick being to buckle up and keep an eye on the month being reported. A majority of the data will continue to be […]
Five Charts For The Week That Was: April 28, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including global growth, tax revenues, and real estate.