Inflation, Housing, and Fed Speeches: A Pivotal Week Ahead
Having hopefully shaken off the always-lethargic start to the new year, investors will be bombarded by data this week, some of it still questionable in quality. For example, the usefulness of Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers for October, delayed because of the government shut-down, is not even being discounted — it’s largely […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: January 9, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including oil and non farm payroll employment.
Passing the Baton: What Powers the Economy Into 2026
Welcome to 2026. The traditional image of the baby who brings in the new year seems modestly inappropriate as the US economy enters what, by many measures, represents the 198th month of an economic expansion that started in the third quarter of 2009. There have indeed been quarters of negative growth during this time period, most notably during the spring […]
Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade
Chief Economist, Jeanette Garretty, was recently featured on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade, offering her insights on the current state of the U.S. economy and what it all means for the year ahead. Watch her full segment here: https://youtu.be/IogjXGCZnDk?t=408.
Five Charts for the Week That Was: December 19, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including employment including federal employees and CPI.
2025’s Unexpected Strength, 2026’s Unanswered Questions
As the year draws to a close, where do we find ourselves? Most likely, not where many of us thought we would be. Economic growth of 2.7-3%, inflation of 2.7-3%, a rising stock market, and falling interest rates… out-of-context (even in-context), this stands as a remarkably positive positioning for the start of 2026. The trade uncertainties that have […]
FOMC Commentary – December 10, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps, with the Fed Funds target range now 3.5%-3.75%. This rate cut is not expected to significantly impact economic activity, which is currently expanding at a 2.5%-3.0% pace.
Economic Momentum Builds as Companies Shift Focus to 2026
Lessened concern about consumer spending weakness in December, and optimism about end-of-year economic growth, risks overlooking the intense focus of American business on 2026 profitability. Adjustments to the global trade changes introduced by tariff policy and other actions continue to unfold, and labor force decisions for the first half of the coming year — always top-of-mind […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: December 5, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including holiday shopping, gas prices, and electricity costs.
Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending: A Holiday Season Disconnect
Economists have long cautioned against using consumer sentiment surveys to forecast consumer spending. Statistically, income growth is the overwhelming determinant of consumer expenditures, with a lesser, but significant, contributory role played by changes in wealth. Retirement accounts and home equity constitute more than 60% of US Household wealth and these two important components of wealth, like […]
September Metrics Establish Baseline Amid Limited Government Reporting
Economic data for September continues to gush out like water at the end of a fire hose. The problem seems to be that September feels like a LONG time ago. Nevertheless, reports on September employment (last week), and Producer Prices and Retail Sales (both this week), help to establish the base on which the economy is […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: November 21, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including unemployment claims, payroll employment growth, federal tax refunds, trade deficit, and money supply vs. inflation.