Demand Your Client Bill of Rights
The Essential Questions You Should Ask ANY Financial Advisor (Even if You’re ALREADY a Client) John Lau, CPA, CFP® Evaluating financial advisors isn’t easy. “Do I need a fiduciary?” “Do I need an advisor or a planner? Or both?” “How much is it going to cost me?” The questions can seem endless, and that leads […]
Fed Rate Cuts and Solid Earnings Overcome Rising Economic Anxiety
By John Lau October 1, 2024 – Markets were volatile in the third quarter as investors faced political turmoil and a slowing of the economy, but the return of Fed rate cuts and solid corporate earnings helped to offset those political and economic anxieties, and the S&P 500 hit another new all-time high and finished […]
The Rotation from tech to the “rest” of the market continued
By John Lau September 2, 2024 – The rotation from tech to the “rest” of the market continued apace last week as traders used initial tech weakness as a profit taking opportunity. On a sector level, there was a clear cyclical preference as the solid GDP (Q2 GDP rose 3.0% saar[1] vs. (E) 2.8% saar) […]
What the Fed Decision Means
By John Lau August 1, 2024 – The Fed met dovish expectations yesterday and reinforced one of the key supports for the 2024 rally: the idea of looming rate cuts. Powell all but said a September rate cut was coming and also (and importantly) floated the idea that the Fed could cut “several” times in […]
Quarterly Insights – July 2024: More New Highs for the S&P 500 in Q2
By John Lau July 1, 2024 – The S&P 500 experienced its first real dose of volatility early in the second quarter, but expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, solid economic growth and continued strong financial performance from AI-related tech companies ultimately pushed the S&P 500 to new all-time highs and the […]
Growing Economic Concerns
By John Lau June 3, 2024 – From my vantage point, the biggest concern for this market right now is an unexpected economic slowdown because that is one of the few events that can potentially cause a material correction in stocks. While economic data suggest slower growth—for example, the Q1 GDP revision implied slower growth—the […]
Will Interest Rates Stay Higher for Longer?
By John Lau May 1, 2024 – One of the narratives that has fueled the rally in risk assets since the October 2023 lows is the expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The only issue here is that most recent statistics surrounding inflation, employment, and broader business activity continue to indicate a […]
Is Roth Conversion Right for You?
Roth IRAs can be a great way to turn your retirement assets into future tax-free income. Since the money inside the Roth has already been taxed, you don’t have to pay taxes on qualified distributions, and you don’t have to take Required Minimum Distributions. When markets experience a down or volatile year and your portfolio […]
Stocks Surge to New Highs to Start 2024
By John Lau April 1, 2024 – The rally in the first quarter of 2024 was a positive combination of stable economic growth, falling inflation, impending Fed rate cuts and ever-growing enthusiasm towards artificial intelligence (AI) propelling stocks higher, as the S&P 500 rose above 5,000 for the first time and hit new all-time highs. […]
Is the S&P at 5,100 Sustainable?
By John Lau February 29, 2024 – The S&P 500 has surged to all-time highs near 5,100, thanks primarily to the NVDA earnings explosion. That performance reinvigorated AI enthusiasm and that, in turn, helped to propel stocks higher across the board as the rally has continued to broaden out beyond just the Magnificent Seven. With […]
Why Did Stocks Drop Yesterday?
It’s Not Because of What You May Think By John Lau February 14, 2024 – Stocks dropped sharply yesterday when the CPI numbers came in “warmer than expected”. But yesterday’s CPI did not really show any signs of reversal on disinflation. Instead, it simply reminded us that the S&P 500 at 5,000 is priced for […]
Bullish Assumptions Updated
By John Lau February 2, 2024 – In my January market letter, I wrote “… I want to start 2024 clearly defining what I see to be the five most important assumptions investors are making right now, because it’s how these events occur vs. these assumptions, and not absolute values, that will determine if stocks and […]