What Would Cause the Fed to Cut Rates Again?
By John Lau January 31, 2025 – On Wednesday, the Fed made no change to interest rates, as expected. Turning to Powell’s press conference, I do think the Fed used the meeting to convey that unless inflation declines further or growth rolls over, rates aren’t declining anytime soon. From a market standpoint, the net impact […]
Solid Economic Growth and Rate Cuts Power Stocks in 2024
By John Lau January 2, 2025 – The S&P 500 extended 2024 gains as the election results raised expectations for tax cuts and other pro-growth policies in 2025, while the economy remained on solid footing and the Fed continued to cut interest rates. The S&P 500 logged a modestly positive return for the fourth quarter […]
Trump’s Political “Tape Bombs” and the Santa Claus Rally
By John Lau December 2, 2024 – On Monday last week, after the close, President-elect Trump dropped a political “tape bomb” by threatening to levy 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico and add an additional 10% tariff on China. The impact of the threat didn’t push the S&P 500 lower, but it did cause a […]
Why The Next Two Weeks Are So Important…
By John Lau November 4, 2024 – It is not an exaggeration to say that the next two weeks could likely determine if stocks hold (or even extend) the YTD gains or if volatility resurfaces and we have a tumultuous end to what has been, so far, a good year in the markets. This is […]
Demand Your Client Bill of Rights
The Essential Questions You Should Ask ANY Financial Advisor (Even if You’re ALREADY a Client) John Lau, CPA, CFP® Evaluating financial advisors isn’t easy. “Do I need a fiduciary?” “Do I need an advisor or a planner? Or both?” “How much is it going to cost me?” The questions can seem endless, and that leads […]
Fed Rate Cuts and Solid Earnings Overcome Rising Economic Anxiety
By John Lau October 1, 2024 – Markets were volatile in the third quarter as investors faced political turmoil and a slowing of the economy, but the return of Fed rate cuts and solid corporate earnings helped to offset those political and economic anxieties, and the S&P 500 hit another new all-time high and finished […]
The Rotation from tech to the “rest” of the market continued
By John Lau September 2, 2024 – The rotation from tech to the “rest” of the market continued apace last week as traders used initial tech weakness as a profit taking opportunity. On a sector level, there was a clear cyclical preference as the solid GDP (Q2 GDP rose 3.0% saar[1] vs. (E) 2.8% saar) […]
What the Fed Decision Means
By John Lau August 1, 2024 – The Fed met dovish expectations yesterday and reinforced one of the key supports for the 2024 rally: the idea of looming rate cuts. Powell all but said a September rate cut was coming and also (and importantly) floated the idea that the Fed could cut “several” times in […]
Quarterly Insights – July 2024: More New Highs for the S&P 500 in Q2
By John Lau July 1, 2024 – The S&P 500 experienced its first real dose of volatility early in the second quarter, but expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, solid economic growth and continued strong financial performance from AI-related tech companies ultimately pushed the S&P 500 to new all-time highs and the […]
Growing Economic Concerns
By John Lau June 3, 2024 – From my vantage point, the biggest concern for this market right now is an unexpected economic slowdown because that is one of the few events that can potentially cause a material correction in stocks. While economic data suggest slower growth—for example, the Q1 GDP revision implied slower growth—the […]
Will Interest Rates Stay Higher for Longer?
By John Lau May 1, 2024 – One of the narratives that has fueled the rally in risk assets since the October 2023 lows is the expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The only issue here is that most recent statistics surrounding inflation, employment, and broader business activity continue to indicate a […]
Is Roth Conversion Right for You?
Roth IRAs can be a great way to turn your retirement assets into future tax-free income. Since the money inside the Roth has already been taxed, you don’t have to pay taxes on qualified distributions, and you don’t have to take Required Minimum Distributions. When markets experience a down or volatile year and your portfolio […]