Triple Whammy Shocks: Geopolitical, Labor and Private Credit
Executive Summary Last week, stock and bond prices were down and yields were up. Three simultaneous shocks are feeding off each other: oil at $100/bbl (up 35% in a week), a February jobs loss of 92,000 versus expectations of +60,000 growth, and a third major private credit gating event. Bonds are not providing their usual cushion because the […]
February 2026 Monthly Markets Update
Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index declined -0.8% in February, but the headline masked broad underlying strength. The equal-weighted S&P 500 gained +3.5%, Large Cap Value rose +2.6%, and the Russell 2000 added +0.8%, as the rotation toward smaller and more value-oriented companies continued. In contrast, Large Cap Growth declined -3.4% and the Nasdaq fell […]
Market Leadership Broadens as Rotation Continues
Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index declined -0.8% in February, but the headline masked broad underlying strength. The equal-weighted S&P 500 gained +3.5%, Large Cap Value rose +2.6%, and the Russell 2000 added +0.8%, as the rotation toward smaller and more value-oriented companies continued. In contrast, Large Cap Growth declined -3.4% and the Nasdaq fell -2.3% as […]
Oil and LNG Natural Gas Markets: Fundamentals, Geopolitics and What Investors Should Watch
Despite ongoing headlines about Middle East tensions and potential disruptions, the global oil market enters 2026 with a fundamental backdrop of supply exceeding demand. Crude inventories remain adequate, and analysts still see surplus capacity relative to underlying consumption. In other words, there is no structural shortage of oil barrels — the market is fundamentally oversupplied. Prior to this recent Middle East conflict, […]
AI Disruption Pauses While the US Economy Remains Resilient
Executive Summary Last week, the S&P 500 returned +1.0%. Markets continued to be whipsawed as traders assess the impact of AI across a number of industries; oil rose and perceived inflation risks kept a lid on bond prices as the U.S. continues a substantial military buildup in the Middle East. Late in the week, the U.S. Supreme Court […]
Market Rotation Accelerates as Manufacturing Rebounds and Al Volatility Rise
Executive Summary Stocks traded sideways this week before a late-week sell-off. The S&P 500 gained +0.5%, but it continued to lag the Russell 2000 and Equal Weight S&P 500. It’s now underperforming both indices by over -5% YTD, while the Nasdaq and Large Cap Growth are down over -2% YTD as investors rotate and market leadership broadens. Sector performance was mixed, with […]
AI Disruption, Fed Pause, and Rotating Equity Leadership: What’s Driving Markets Now
Executive Summary Over the next few months, the market is navigating a delicate balance of a strong economy, soft labor market conditions, AI disruption vs. destruction, and a Fed pause. The narrative centers on a near-perfect outcome: a soft landing, strong earnings growth, AI capex that both boosts productivity and generates revenue, and a tailwind […]
January 2026 Monthly Markets Update
Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index gained +1.5% in January, setting a new high as it traded above 7,000 for the first time. The month was also marked by sharp sector rotation; value outpaced growth across market caps. Large Cap Growth declined -1.5% as tech stocks traded lower, while Large Cap Value rose +4.6%. The […]
Stuart Katz on the Market Impact of Warsh Nomination on Schwab Network
Our CIO Stuart Katz joined Schwab Network to break down how the nomination of Kevin Warsh is impacting the dollar, gold, and investor sentiment. Stuart highlights how the nomination ofnew Fed leadership may refocus markets on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, while also cautioning that a weaker dollar could fuel imported inflation. Watch the full segment here: https://schwabnetwork.com/video/warsh-to-head-fed-dollar-rises-gold-plummets
Fumbles or Fortunes? The S&P After the Super Bowl
Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl Date Location Opponent Score Opponent Score Result S&P 500 CY Performance* XL Feb. 5, 2006 Ford Field (Detroit) Pittsburgh 10 21 Loss 15.8% XLVIII Feb. 2, 2014 MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.) Denver 43 8 Won 13.7% XLIX Feb. 1, 2015 University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.) New England 24 28 […]
Markets Reprice Risk as Fed Signals Caution and Breadth Broadens
Executive Summary The S&P 500 returned +0.3% for the week, recovering from a mid-week wobble. The Fed held interest rates steady and signaled no rush to lower rates amid a strong economy, while tech stocks fell with a weak outlook from Microsoft with investors questioning the timeframe for returns on its AI-related spending. However, markets looked favorably […]
Tariff Turbulence Fades, Underlying Trends Hold Firm
Executive Summary Markets were choppy last week as policy headlines drove shifts in risk sentiment. Tariff-related developments sparked early-week volatility, though conditions stabilized as concerns eased. The S&P 500 finished the week in negative territory for the second consecutive week, where leadership continued to rotate beneath the surface. Small-cap, value, and equal-weight indexes outperformed, while technology […]