Strait of Hormuz: Risk Markets Veer Off the Straight and Narrow
U.S. equity indexes finished lower in a volatile week shaped by geopolitical tensions and resulting volatility in oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a somewhat hawkish interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared worst, declining 2.11%, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, which shed 2.07%. The S&P MidCap 400 Index held up best but […]
Beyond the Noise Podcast – Episode 1
Listen to Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty and Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz as they analyze the economy and markets amidst current geopolitical tensions.
Monitoring Inflation Shock Potentially Transitioning to Growth Shock
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell for the third week in a row, with the Nasdaq down eight times in the last nine weeks. The dollar strengthened against the major currencies as investors moved toward safer assets and ended at its strongest level of the year albeit still down year over year. Rising oil prices […]
Triple Whammy Shocks: Geopolitical, Labor and Private Credit
Executive Summary Last week, stock and bond prices were down and yields were up. Three simultaneous shocks are feeding off each other: oil at $100/bbl (up 35% in a week), a February jobs loss of 92,000 versus expectations of +60,000 growth, and a third major private credit gating event. Bonds are not providing their usual cushion because the […]
February 2026 Monthly Markets Update
Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index declined -0.8% in February, but the headline masked broad underlying strength. The equal-weighted S&P 500 gained +3.5%, Large Cap Value rose +2.6%, and the Russell 2000 added +0.8%, as the rotation toward smaller and more value-oriented companies continued. In contrast, Large Cap Growth declined -3.4% and the Nasdaq fell […]
Market Leadership Broadens as Rotation Continues
Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index declined -0.8% in February, but the headline masked broad underlying strength. The equal-weighted S&P 500 gained +3.5%, Large Cap Value rose +2.6%, and the Russell 2000 added +0.8%, as the rotation toward smaller and more value-oriented companies continued. In contrast, Large Cap Growth declined -3.4% and the Nasdaq fell -2.3% as […]
Oil and LNG Natural Gas Markets: Fundamentals, Geopolitics and What Investors Should Watch
Despite ongoing headlines about Middle East tensions and potential disruptions, the global oil market enters 2026 with a fundamental backdrop of supply exceeding demand. Crude inventories remain adequate, and analysts still see surplus capacity relative to underlying consumption. In other words, there is no structural shortage of oil barrels — the market is fundamentally oversupplied. Prior to this recent Middle East conflict, […]
AI Disruption Pauses While the US Economy Remains Resilient
Executive Summary Last week, the S&P 500 returned +1.0%. Markets continued to be whipsawed as traders assess the impact of AI across a number of industries; oil rose and perceived inflation risks kept a lid on bond prices as the U.S. continues a substantial military buildup in the Middle East. Late in the week, the U.S. Supreme Court […]
Market Rotation Accelerates as Manufacturing Rebounds and Al Volatility Rise
Executive Summary Stocks traded sideways this week before a late-week sell-off. The S&P 500 gained +0.5%, but it continued to lag the Russell 2000 and Equal Weight S&P 500. It’s now underperforming both indices by over -5% YTD, while the Nasdaq and Large Cap Growth are down over -2% YTD as investors rotate and market leadership broadens. Sector performance was mixed, with […]
AI Disruption, Fed Pause, and Rotating Equity Leadership: What’s Driving Markets Now
Executive Summary Over the next few months, the market is navigating a delicate balance of a strong economy, soft labor market conditions, AI disruption vs. destruction, and a Fed pause. The narrative centers on a near-perfect outcome: a soft landing, strong earnings growth, AI capex that both boosts productivity and generates revenue, and a tailwind […]
January 2026 Monthly Markets Update
Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index gained +1.5% in January, setting a new high as it traded above 7,000 for the first time. The month was also marked by sharp sector rotation; value outpaced growth across market caps. Large Cap Growth declined -1.5% as tech stocks traded lower, while Large Cap Value rose +4.6%. The […]
Stuart Katz on the Market Impact of Warsh Nomination on Schwab Network
Our CIO Stuart Katz joined Schwab Network to break down how the nomination of Kevin Warsh is impacting the dollar, gold, and investor sentiment. Stuart highlights how the nomination ofnew Fed leadership may refocus markets on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, while also cautioning that a weaker dollar could fuel imported inflation. Watch the full segment here: https://schwabnetwork.com/video/warsh-to-head-fed-dollar-rises-gold-plummets