Markets Rally Through Data Fog as Fed Expectations Drive Sentiment
Executive Summary Markets extended their rally in October, rising for a seventh straight month despite intra-month volatility and uncertainty around a December rate cut. The government shutdown has ended, but it has left a gap in economic data, making it difficult to analyze the economy. Despite this data vacuum, optimism around a third consecutive rate […]
Markets Digest the Path of Interest Rates & the Next Phase of the AI Cycle
Monthly Market Summary The Market’s Tug-of-War with the Federal Reserve The stock market was volatile in November as the Federal Reserve managed investor expectations for a December rate cut. The volatility started after the Fed’s late-October meeting, when Chair Powell said a December rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion”. Market-implied odds for a third […]
Markets Rebound as Fed Signals December Rate Cut
Executive Summary Last week, the equity market staged a broad rebound, recovering a portion of November’s losses. The rally was sparked by commentary from the Federal Reserve suggesting a December rate cut is back on the table. Major equity indices rallied sharply, with gains spread across sectors and factors. Small-cap stocks were the standout performers, […]
Hawkish Fed, Weakening Labor Data, and Markets Pushing Cuts to 2026
Executive Summary The recent odds of a December cut have been going down to 44% and a 56% chance of a hold. With that said, there are now three cuts priced into 2026, so the bond market more or less is pushing out the rate cut into next year. Regardless, the Fed is becoming increasingly […]
Earnings Strength Anchors a Volatile Market
Executive Summary The stock market has stayed resilient with sporadic pullbacks and shots of volatility. We expect this choppiness to continue into year-end. The real story remains the same: The economy has been resilient, the consumer has been resilient, and the Fed has cut rates in an economic expansion due to an increased focus on […]
October Recap: Monthly Roundup
Executive Summary Markets extended their rally in October, rising for a sixth straight month and hitting new highs despite weakening breadth. Parallels to the late 1990s, marked by narrow leadership, expensive valuations, and transformative tech, continue to fuel debate of a bubble. While today’s AI leaders are fundamentally stronger than their dot-com era peers, questions […]
S&P Gains Mask Underlying Market Exhaustion
Executive Summary Last week, large-capitalization S&P 500 stocks advanced 0.7%, but small stocks lagged. The three material items for the week included broadly positive big tech earnings, the Fed meeting featuring an expected 25 basis point (bps) cut, and the end of quantitative tightening[1] as of 12/1/25, along with a warning that another cut in […]
Investment Commentary – October 27, 2025
Executive Summary Investors are gearing up for a pivotal week, as Big Tech earnings and an expected U.S. interest rate cut could set the country’s economic trajectory for the rest of the year. A cooler than expected inflation report on Friday sent stocks to fresh highs as traders bet the Federal Reserve will trim the cost of borrowing […]
Investment Commentary – October 20, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned 1.1% for the week amid continued optimism around AI, a strong start to the earnings season, from large banks, and increasing hopes for further rate cuts from the Fed. Markets looked past trade tensions with China and emerging credit issues at regional banks as Fed Chair Powell signaled that the […]
Investment Commentary – October 13, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, stocks declined while bonds appreciated (price up / yield down). The MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI EAFE indices outperformed the S&P 500. Across U.S. Russell style & market cap indices, mid-cap growth did the best, but the low volatility factor led more broadly. As for fixed income, the 10-year. treasury yield […]
Investment Commentary – October 6, 2025
Executive Summary Equity Markets Risk On Last week, global equity funds experienced the best week of inflows in nearly a year, led by U.S. technology and financial stocks. The third quarter was strong across both risk- and risk-control portfolios, with global equities gaining over 8%. In the U.S., small caps gained over 12% for the […]
September Recap: Third Quarter 2025 Executive Summary
Equity Markets Risk On Equity Markets carried their strong momentum from Q2 into Q3, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and small-cap stocks each hitting new highs. Investor sentiment remained optimistic despite soft labor market data and mixed economic signals, and stocks traded higher due to strong corporate earnings, the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward rate cuts, […]