All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week, with a more than side-long glance at economic activity in the United States and China. Wednesday’s announcement of interest rate changes – a 50 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate is widely expected—and Chairman Powell’s follow-on press conference should provide important hints, not in the least because this particular FOMC meeting will also contain an updated “Summary of Economic Projections.” Powell is likely to be pushed very hard by reporters on both the issue of the “terminal rate,” i.e., the rate at which interest rate increase will top out in 2023, and his evaluation of the economic impact from the accumulated interest rate increases in 2022. Stocks gave back much of the previous two weeks’ gains as some surprisingly strong economic data weakened hopes that the Federal Reserve might soon be able to shift its program of raising interest rates to tackle inflation. It still feels as if markets remain in something of a holding pattern ahead of a packed calendar of events in the week ahead. This includes the latest interest rate decisions from the Fed, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE). Expectations of the Fed’s terminal rate continue to hover around the 5% mark, where they’ve been for around a couple of months now. On the wealth planning front, there are still some planning items around gifting, charitable donations and RMDs that are still actionable.
Click Here to Read the December 12, 2022, Economic Commentary
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