Weekly Commentary

History tells us that markets don’t find a bottom until investors begin to anticipate a combination of rate cuts due to softening inflation, leading indicators point to improved growth, and valuations price a bear case scenario. We believe there

Much of the tone for 2023 will be set by the inflation numbers being released in the march to the end of 2022 and the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the embodied inflation risks. It slightly appears that the debate over peak inflation has been

Three weeks into the fourth quarter of 2022, questions are mounting as to whether the US economy can continue to grow at the estimated 2% annual pace likely to be reported for the third quarter, on October 27. As yet, inflation has not responded to

We believe an era of low inflation, low interest rates and supportive fiscal and monetary policy has ended. We believe interest rates will probably need to stay higher for longer to tackle sticky inflation and weigh on economic growth. Last week’s US

We believe the Fed will continue its path of raising rates until it tackles inflation and will only pivot beforehand if there is deep foreign financial market contagion, massive market liquidity issue, or material credit market disruption. While the

Extremely hawkish statements by Fed Chairman Powell have had a noticeable impact on sentiment, shifting many economists and analysts into cautioning about an imminent economic recession in the US and possibly globally. The Fed's commentary is

With the big “macro week” ahead of us with the Fed meeting on Wednesday and various home statistics, the Investment Office will focus on the Fed’s three primary tools to deliver its monetary policy, which include fed fund rate targets, balance sheet

This week the Investment Office believes that in the current environment, where interest rates were recently at all-time lows and stock valuations high at the end of 2021, rising real rates have been one of the factors leading to a repricing of

This week the Investment Office expects the Federal Reserve to continue raising policy rates towards 4.0% pushing the U.S. economy towards a demand recession to bring inflation under control and potentially higher downside risks to markets. Our base

This week the Investment Office evaluates the equity and credit markets and their reactions to the Fed’s remarks last Friday. The Investment Office continues to watch for the possibility of a recession and how this new macro backdrop will impact