Weekly Commentary

Interest rates staying “higher for longer” — the long-held viewpoint of many economists and Federal Reserve officials, but not necessarily investors— is looking like a higher probability bet every passing day. Yet, last week’s run-up in yields seems

The third quarter starts with many interesting questions to be resolved about the health of bank balance sheets and the effects on consumer spending from the overturn of President Biden’s student-loan forgiveness program. It is not presently known

US economic growth for the quarter is currently estimated at 1%-2%, Chinese economic growth is faltering but positive, and European economic activity is holding up nicely, with the exception of Germany which essentially is in recession courtesy of

Following last week’s announcement of a temporary pause in raising the Fed Funds rate, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be under pressure this week to explain to Congress — and financial markets— what exactly this temporary pause means. Although

As is fairly typical at economic inflection points, the top-line economic numbers for GDP and employment continue to hold up while notable regional and sectoral differences are increasingly apparent. Chief among these differences at the moment is

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week commands most of the attention this week. US service industry data being released may indicate some slowing of economic activity in that sector which the Fed believes to be one of the

For central bankers, the world is now a fairly complicated puzzle. In China, the economic recovery appears to be slowing due to weaker-than-expected (desired?) consumer demand and problematic unemployment, challenging policy-makers to provide

The Fed Watch and the Debt-Ceiling Drama both continue this week, each with short term consequences for investors.  Fed Board members appear to be stepping towards a pause in interest rate hikes in June, although exactly why this is happening is not

Focus shifts this week to Europe, where data on economic strength in March and early April will provide context for remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Isabel Schnabel on Thursday and Friday. In the US, speeches by a wide

Following last week’s robust, significantly-higher-than-expected US employment numbers for April – and an unemployment rate that fell from 3.6% to 3.4% -- all eyes this week should be on the inflation numbers and any Federal Reserve commentary about