History tells us that markets don’t find a bottom until investors begin to anticipate a combination of rate cuts due to softening inflation, leading indicators point to improved growth, and valuations price a bear case scenario. We believe there
Weekly Commentary
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – October 24, 2022
Much of the tone for 2023 will be set by the inflation numbers being released in the march to the end of 2022 and the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the embodied inflation risks. It slightly appears that the debate over peak inflation has been
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – October 17, 2022
Three weeks into the fourth quarter of 2022, questions are mounting as to whether the US economy can continue to grow at the estimated 2% annual pace likely to be reported for the third quarter, on October 27. As yet, inflation has not responded to
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – October 10, 2022
We believe an era of low inflation, low interest rates and supportive fiscal and monetary policy has ended. We believe interest rates will probably need to stay higher for longer to tackle sticky inflation and weigh on economic growth. Last week’s US
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – October 3, 2022
We believe the Fed will continue its path of raising rates until it tackles inflation and will only pivot beforehand if there is deep foreign financial market contagion, massive market liquidity issue, or material credit market disruption. While the
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – September 26, 2022
Extremely hawkish statements by Fed Chairman Powell have had a noticeable impact on sentiment, shifting many economists and analysts into cautioning about an imminent economic recession in the US and possibly globally. The Fed's commentary is
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – September 19, 2022
With the big “macro week” ahead of us with the Fed meeting on Wednesday and various home statistics, the Investment Office will focus on the Fed’s three primary tools to deliver its monetary policy, which include fed fund rate targets, balance sheet
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – September 12, 2022
This week the Investment Office believes that in the current environment, where interest rates were recently at all-time lows and stock valuations high at the end of 2021, rising real rates have been one of the factors leading to a repricing of
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – September 6, 2022
This week the Investment Office expects the Federal Reserve to continue raising policy rates towards 4.0% pushing the U.S. economy towards a demand recession to bring inflation under control and potentially higher downside risks to markets. Our base
Robertson Stephens Weekly Commentary – August 29, 2022
This week the Investment Office evaluates the equity and credit markets and their reactions to the Fed’s remarks last Friday. The Investment Office continues to watch for the possibility of a recession and how this new macro backdrop will impact