Weekly Commentary

The surprising 1.1% first estimate of Q1 US growth, released last Friday, provides the context for scrutinizing the economic activity numbers for April being released this week -- and for evaluating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision

A long-awaited first report this week on US economic growth in the first quarter will set the tone for investor focus in the next few months. At present, the issue is the real economy (consumption, business investment, government spending, etc.) and

Last week’s FOMC minutes (of the March 2023 meeting) served to shape the focus of investors on the possibility of a recession.  The Federal Reserve’s Research Dept. apparently is running with a forecast for a "mild recession” later in 2023, a

For a few weeks, the banking turmoil set off in early March has settled into an uneasy calm. This peace is likely to be disturbed soon, first by the release of consumer price and producer price indices for March and then by earnings announcements

The second quarter of 2023 begins with an interesting look back at the first quarter: substantially weakened numbers for US manufacturing activity, including employment, in the second half of the first quarter and a newly revised Atlanta Fed GDPNow

The Fed's decision to raise rates modestly and signal a possible tempering of monetary tightening going forward will no doubt be re-evaluated at the end of this week with the release of important inflation indicators for February.  All indications

As the Federal Reserve prepares for this week’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the turmoil in US regional banks and the European banking system will be a new and uncertain factor. In addition to the question of how an additional rate

Turmoil in the banking industry will dominate the economic discussion this week, not only in the US. The immediate question/concern is whether the Federal Reserve will change its stance on proceeding with further interest rate increases in order to

The testimony before Congress this week by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will shed critical light on the Fed's thinking as it approaches its next FOMC interest-rate setting meeting on March 21-22. While it is highly unlikely that he will be very

Additional data this week is expected to confirm the ongoing strength of economic growth in the United States and the economic resilience of Europe in the face of rising interest rates and the disruptions of the war in Ukraine. Labor markets in both