All eyes this week fall on the inflation numbers for December and how they will answer the many questions about the path forward for the Fed and the US economy. The week started with an important positive from the New York Fed, which reported a slight lowering to 5% of near-term inflation expectations among its consumer survey respondents; medium-term inflation expectations remain at 3%. With the economy struggling with elevated inflation and companies facing difficult earnings comparisons with last year, we believe the fourth-quarter earnings season will be challenging for the overall market and individual companies. As a result, forward guidance regarding the ability of companies to pass on higher prices to protect profit margins will remain a critical focus. We also believe the transition from top-down macro to bottom-up fundamentals will be bumpy as analysts tend to think that the unfavorable growth-inflation mix may lead to a corporate earnings recession. On the wealth planning front, we discuss the Secure Act 2.0 and its new provision that allows the owner of a 529 plan to roll over funds to a Roth IRA starting in 2024.
Click Here to Read the January 9, 2023, Economic Commentary
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