March 2023 Monthly Letter
The first quarter of the year is in the books (chart below, YTD). Against an almost uniform bearish consensus, for the first half of the year at least, global growth generally surprised to the upside all quarter. Lower energy and oil prices probably played an important role in the improvement in business sentiment, along with […]
February 2023 Monthly Letter
Helped by falling inflation and hopes of an imminent end to the global monetary tightening cycle, the year got off to a strong start in January. However, resilient economic data in February led to a move higher in bond yields and a decline in equity markets. Markets have been infatuated with the Fed’s plan […]
January 2023 Monthly Letter
As this month’s report is a little later than usual (with apologies), there isn’t too much to write that has not already gotten to you through my Morning Notes. January’s black in the chart below says all you need to know about the start of the new year and its stark departure from last year’s […]