Halftime – Bullet Point Monday – June 30, 2025
Good morning, Welcome to June 30th — the final day of the month, the quarter, and the first half of the year. It’s also Bullet-Point Monday. No Morning Note until next Monday. Wishing you a great week and an even better holiday. Be well,Mike
FOMO / PCE / BEACH – June 27, 2025
Good morning, U.S. stocks have surged so far this week, with the S&P 500 up approximately 2.9% and the Nasdaq gaining 3.7%—both nearing or reaching record highs. This rally has been fueled by strong earnings, falling Treasury yields (resulting in rising bond prices), and a reduction in perceived geopolitical risks. Technology stocks continue to lead, […]
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
June 26, 2025 – Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty joined Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to share her perspective during the Drive to the Close segment. Tune in at 35:00 for her insights on the current market outlook and the potential challenges investors may face ahead.Listen here.
Weekend Events – Markets’ Muted Reaction – June 23, 2025
Good morning, The idea that financial markets are cold and unfeeling in the face of major geopolitical events is getting some support from this morning’s price action. While the weekend airstrikes haven’t yet prompted a direct response from Iran, most asset prices have already unwound the risk premium that was priced in on Sunday night’s […]
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on BloombergTV
June 19, 2025 – Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty was interviewed yesterday on BloombergTV. She discusses why “wait and watch” is the Fed’s only real option right now—and Powell seems surprisingly at ease with the current economic outlook. Hear why Jeanette thinks rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon in this sharp analysis, starting at 10:30. Watch Jeanette […]
More Uncertainty for a Compressed Week – June 16, 2025
Good morning, Although the weekend headlines were dramatic, they apparently weren’t dramatic enough to really rattle markets this morning. As of 8 am EDT, futures are up +0.65%, and bonds have given back Friday’s gains. Same story globally—equities are bouncing even as tensions in the Middle East continue. Maybe investors are taking their cue from […]
After the Disaster: An Expert’s Guide to Deciding Whether to Rebuild or Relocate
As published in Kiplinger A home is more than an asset — it’s where milestones are celebrated, memories are made, and a sense of stability is anchored. The emotional and financial impact can be profound when a natural disaster strikes. And once the immediate damage is assessed, a more complex question emerges: Should we rebuild […]
Economic Commentary – June 9, 2025
The growing contrast between business sentiment, largely expressed via interviews and industry reports, and “hard” macroeconomic data like employment prompts the immediate thought that “Something’s Gotta Give.” Further amplifying the uneasy tenor of the current moment is the apparent difficulty the Bureau of Labor Statistics is having in getting its monthly survey of nonfarm payrolls […]
Trade May Again Headline the Week – June 9, 2025
Good morning, The first week of June lived up to its reputation—relatively calm compared to the last six months. The S&P 500 ended the week up +1.5%, along with most international equity indices. The VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—fell to its lowest level since February as markets moved past the tariff drama… for now. Of course, […]
This Week’s Big Event – June 6, 2025
Good morning, Markets have been relatively calm so far this week, with the S&P 500 up a whopping +0.46%. The most amusing sideshow (unless you own Tesla) was the Trump/Musk dust-up—another reminder of just how much our political landscape has shifted. The main event this week remains this morning’s U.S. employment report for May, due […]
Where Do We Stand with Tariffs and How Important Are They for Markets?
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® June 2, 2025 – Last week brought unexpected volatility to U.S. trade policy. The Court of International Trade blocked most of the administration’s 2025 tariffs, ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president the authority to impose such tariffs. But within 24 hours, the […]
June’s Reputation For Calm Tested By Tariff’s – June 2, 2025
Good morning, Stock futures are kicking off June in the red (-0.5%) after the weekend brought another round of tariff drama, with both China and the U.S. accusing each other of violating a trade deal signed just a few weeks ago. This comes on the heels of the best May since 1990, but now we’re […]