The Four Pillars of the Rally — An Updated Assessment
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® March 1, 2026 – For much of the past year, the S&P 500 advance has been supported by what I’ve called the Four Pillars of the Rally: In recent weeks, each of these pillars has come under varying degrees of stress. That does not mean the bull market is over. […]
Churn Beneath the Surface – Rising Tail Risks – February 27, 2026
Good morning, Another week of churn beneath the market’s surface, even though the S&P 500 Index goes nowhere, has been the story of the month. While the S&P 500 looks to finish little changed, leadership continued to rotate aggressively. Severe price corrections in pockets of AI-driven technology and communications were offset by strength in the broader market […]
Choppy Waters as Policy and Geopolitics Compete – February 23, 2026
Good morning, Investors began last Friday focused on Iran; by week’s end, attention had shifted to the Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Trump’s global tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Another distraction — and another potential source of near-term volatility. Equities edged modestly higher through a choppy week as investors […]
Markets Prefer Earnings to Escalation – February 20, 2026
Good morning, If equity markets could go more than a week without extraneous distractions from their core long-term value drivers—earnings and macroeconomics—we might better enjoy the benefits of a growing economy in a controlled inflation environment. It’s been just over a week of relatively clear air without much interruption (until yesterday), and the major equity […]
AI: Blessing, Curse, and Market Crosscurrents – February 17, 2026
Good morning, While the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index advanced to a new all-time high last week, most other major U.S. equity indices declined (non-U.S. markets were largely flat). The divergence continues. Much of the week’s selling pressure stemmed from rising concerns about AI-driven disruption — and not just within software. AI-enabled tools were launched […]
Volatility Picks Up, But No Warning Signals Yet – February 13, 2026
Good morning, Week by week, volatility has been edging higher. We’re seeing more frequent 1–2% swings in both directions across the major indices — a noticeable change from the steadier tone that characterized much of last year. Yesterday, U.S. equities tumbled as the tech-led selloff deepened. The S&P 500 fell -1.6%, while the Nasdaq and […]
Markets Regain Their Footing as a Data Deluge Looms – February 10, 2026
Good morning, Last week’s three-day pullback of just over 3% in equities—led by technology—was admittedly nerve-wracking, but in the end amounted to little more than a routine correction. That setback has now been largely erased, as the market narrative reverts to familiar themes: continued growth, contained inflation, international over domestic, and value over growth. The […]
A Mature Bull Market Faces a Noisy February – February 2, 2026
Good morning, A positive January for the S&P 500 (+1.4%) has historically boded well for the remainder of the year. In midterm years in particular, January strength has generally carried forward—though often with notable intra-year drawdowns (1966, 1998, and 2018 come to mind). Big picture, this bull market is mature and valuations are elevated, but […]
January’s Surprise Headlines — And What They Really Mean for Investors
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® February 1, 2026 – If it feels like January delivered an unusual concentration of unsettling headlines, you’re not imagining it. In just a few short weeks, investors were confronted with stories ranging from renewed tariff threats involving the EU, South Korea, and Canada, to geopolitical flashpoints such as the reported […]
A Calm January Despite Noisy Headlines – January 26, 2026
Good morning, The first three weeks of January have delivered more than their share of attention-grabbing headlines—from the White House, the weather, and moves in gold and currency markets. Yet none of this has meaningfully disrupted either stocks or bonds. With one week left in the month, equity markets are modestly higher across the board. […]
Markets Whipsawed by Tariffs—Then Back to Drift – January 23, 2026
Good morning, Happy Friday. This week began largely as expected following the holiday-weekend headlines around new tariffs tied to potential U.S. control of Greenland. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index fell just over 2%, alongside declines across all major U.S. equity indexes—the largest one-day drop since last April’s tariff tantrum. By the end of Tuesday, […]
Tariffs Back in Focus as Markets Reverse Early Gains – January 20, 2026
Good morning, A little more than halfway through January (56%), equity markets had been enjoying a welcome broadening of leadership into sectors not known for direct AI exposure (though nearly all sectors will ultimately be influenced by AI). More importantly, that expansion has coincided with persistently higher yields across the curve and a meaningful shift […]