50 bps in Sept Drives Melt-Up Higher – August 13, 2025
Good morning, As promised, below is a reprint of my monthly letter, accompanying client performance reports that are going out—albeit a bit tardy—today. Before that, a quick note on what I see as yesterday’s market event of the week: the CPI report. It landed exactly in line with expectations, offering welcome relief from growing concerns […]
Investment Commentary – August 11, 2025
Equities The S&P 500 returned +2.4% as markets focused on strong corporate earnings results and looked past the disappointing economic data from the previous week. Markets looked past several data points which may ordinarily have given it pause: a weak ISM Services print, rising yields due to weak auction demand for 10-year and 30-year treasuries, […]
Stocks Surge on Earnings Optimism—Inflation Data Up Next – August 11, 2025
Good morning, Stocks logged their best weekly gain of the summer last week, with the S&P 500 up 2.44% and the Nasdaq climbing 3.88%, as strong earnings outweighed the prior week’s weak employment report. The recent concentrated melt-up in equities appears driven by optimism over economic growth tied to heavy investment in AI and onshoring […]
Economic Commentary – August 11, 2025
Inflation returns to center stage this week with the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). These numbers have significance for all the usual reasons, but now will be viewed in the context of a July employment report weak enough to have shifted the thinking to an “almost-certain” September […]
July 2025 Monthly Letter
In July, the Trump administration’s announcement of several trade agreements, along with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), added some clarity to the future policy backdrop and bolstered market risk sentiment. While the removal of uncertainty typically supports market values, it may have been investors’ willingness to overlook the potential long-term […]
Investment Commentary – July 28, 2025
Executive Summary We believe the tariff situation represents more of a consumption tax that will be more similar to a one-time price adjustment than stoking runaway inflation expectations. We also believe that housing is an important component of inflation metrics, where home prices have been recently deflating across the country, and mortgage rates remain elevated. […]
Economic Commentary – July 28, 2025
Occasionally, the amount of economic data made available in a short time can seem overwhelming. Such is the case this week, where the “main event” is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, but inflation, employment, consumption, and housing data for Q2 and July all appropriately deserve equal attention. Thankfully, much of the important data will […]
Deluge Ahead – July 28, 2025
Good morning, Futures are modestly higher this morning (+0.2%), building on Friday’s record close following news weekend news of a trade deal between the U.S. and EU. One more log of uncertainty has been removed from the fire ahead of what promises to be a deluge of data and earnings for the markets this week. […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: July 25, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including the Fed Rate, GDP estimates, home sales, oil prices, and Chinese exports and imports.
No Altering Forces on Momentum When News Flow is Skewed Positively- July 25, 2025
Good morning, Newton’s First Law of Motion—a body in motion remains in motion unless acted upon by an external force—is closely tied to the concept of momentum (mass × velocity). Both help explain why objects, or in this case markets, keep moving along the same vector (direction and velocity), or don’t. What looked like it […]
New Tax Law: 7 Big Changes You Should Know About
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® July 23, 2025 – You’ve likely heard about this from every possible media channel. A sweeping new tax law just hit the books: the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” and it could represent a big overhaul to household finances. Think of it like a home renovation. The 2017 tax cuts […]
Investment Commentary – July 21, 2025
Executive Summary Various key trends the Investment Office is monitoring U.S. financials sector earnings season kicked off last week strong. The MSCI EAFE Large Cap value index has nearly 37% weight to financials, which creates concentration risk. This week we have Eurozone and U.S. preliminary PMIs, more S&P500 earnings releases including Google and Tesla. […]