Investment Commentary – July 21, 2025
Executive Summary Various key trends the Investment Office is monitoring U.S. financials sector earnings season kicked off last week strong. The MSCI EAFE Large Cap value index has nearly 37% weight to financials, which creates concentration risk. This week we have Eurozone and U.S. preliminary PMIs, more S&P500 earnings releases including Google and Tesla. […]
Earnings Build, Momentum Fades in the Quiet Week Before the Storm – July 21, 2025
Good morning, Summer delivers more weeks of market doldrums than the other three seasons combined, and this week is shaping up to be this year’s first example. Relative to next week, this one may feel like the calm before the storm, as next week is loaded with macro risk events, including the Fed meeting, U.S. […]
A Shot In The Arm For the Bull-Camp – July 18, 2025
Good morning, There are always buyers and sellers in capital markets; bulls and bears. We’ve outlined the key risks for the back half of 2025 in recent Morning Notes and the Monthly Letter. The prevailing concern remains a “stagflation-lite” scenario—moderating growth that still trends positive, paired with persistent inflation pressures. In short, incremental shifts in […]
Lessons from the ’90s: How AI Is Powering a New Investment Cycle
July 15, 2025 Technology spending is accelerating at the fastest pace in decades. Figure 1 shows investment in information processing equipment and software grew +14% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, the fastest pace since the late 1990s. During the dot-com era, investment in computers and software grew over +15% YoY before collapsing in the early […]
Tariff Deadlines, Data Drops, and the Madness of Crowds – July 14, 2025
Good morning, Market volatility remained muted last week, largely because the White House extended the 90-day tariff pause—originally set to expire last Wednesday, July 9—to August 1. That delay delivered the quote of the week: when asked, President Trump said the new deadline was “firm, but not 100% firm,” depending on negotiations. Is it any wonder the […]
Economic Commentary – July 14, 2025
July doesn’t feel much like the summer doldrums yet. Tariff threats are flying, bilateral deals are being hammered out (we hope, albeit with minimal details), and economist Kevin Hassett is the latest policymaker trying to engineer a Federal Reserve coup. One way to understand the economic policy disarray is to appreciate that wars in Ukraine […]
Investment Commentary – July 14, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, there was little difference in performance between large-caps and small-caps, while growth stocks held up modestly better than value. Investors have begun to follow airline earnings announcements as something of a bellwether of consumer strength. Delta Air Lines provided a supportive full-year 2025 earnings outlook—after withdrawing its guidance in the wake […]
Rudeness – July 11, 2025
Good morning, If you’re in the cautious investor camp (like I am), it’s hard not to chafe at the rudeness of this equity market. It just keeps going up—almost in defiance of the headlines. The S&P 500 is up +0.04% so far this week and notched another all-time high yesterday, right in the middle of […]
Quarterly Letter: Policies Come into Focus
By Avi Deutsch July 10, 2025 – The past quarter saw the implementation of many of the policies promised by the new administration. These included: Across the board, it’s too early to say how these policies are impacting the economy. Tariffs are clearly raising revenues, but how this cost will be shared between foreign manufacturers, […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: July 11, 2025
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including the Fed Rate, GDP estimates, home sales, oil prices, and Chinese exports and imports.
Investment Commentary – July 7, 2025
Executive Summary Major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher. Smaller-cap indexes performed best, with the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 indexes climbing 2.85% and 3.52%, respectively, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which advanced 2.30%. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite both closed at all-time highs for the second week […]
Tariffs Back In The Spotlight – July 7, 2025
Good morning, I hope you had a relaxing holiday weekend—at least as good as it was for global equity markets heading into the break. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs, driven by bullish momentum (FOMO), a better-than-expected monthly jobs report (despite murky details beneath the headline), and a trade agreement between […]