Equity Market Walks a Goldilocks Tightrope – September 12, 2025
Good morning, Due to my own miscalculation (mostly the hangover-like state from TKR), I don’t have August’s monthly letter ready for you this morning—even as September is already half past. The primary delay has been my desire to incorporate insights from yesterday’s Ned Davis Research special webcast, “Secular Bull Market Intact, Secular Bear Risk Rising.” It was as […]
Katz: ‘How Fast’ the Fed Will Cut is the Bigger Question
September 12, 2025 – Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz shares his outlook on the Fed’s shift toward the job market, the path of inflation, and why the pace of rate cuts matters most—click here to watch his full interview on Schwab Network.
Weak Jobs, Strong Cuts? Market Caught Between Labor and Fed – September 8, 2025
Good morning, Friday’s August employment report came in weaker than already low expectations—disappointing equity markets but giving bond investors some comfort. Even so, the damage to stocks was modest, with the S&P 500 Index finishing down just –0.30% on the day and up +0.37% for the week. Traders quickly reframed the weak jobs data as […]
Powell, Rate Cuts, and Stagflation Risks
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® September 2, 2025 – Markets surged following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where he struck a more dovish tone and openly signaled that a September rate cut is on the table. That shift fueled aggressive rate-cut assumptions, propelling cyclical sectors, small caps, and broad indices higher. On the […]
PCE Data Rattles Investors Ahead of Jobs Week – September 2, 2025
Good morning, Markets limped into the long holiday weekend on Friday following the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. While broadly in line with economists’ estimates, the report confirmed a firmer price environment than in recent months. Futures sold off immediately, and the S&P 500 fell -0.64% on […]
Investment Commentary – September 2, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 closed out August near an all-time high, defying consensus commentary that was pessimistic. Coming into the month, many investors were bracing for seasonal weakness, the onset of new tariffs, elevated valuations, compressed credit spreads, and commentary related to the Federal Reserve’s independence. What drove the resilience? U.S. economic growth remained firm, […]
Economic Commentary – September 2, 2025
Lost in the sigh of relief that the inflation numbers (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, or “PCE”) last Friday weren’t all that bad was the fact that inflation has conclusively ceased its movement to the Federal Reserve target of 2%. Given that the Federal Reserve has not changed its target inflation rate, it would normally be assumed […]
August 2025 Monthly Letter
In a change of pattern, this month’s letter begins with the monthly index performance chart. As of September 14—two weeks into the month—the performance of the major indexes looks nearly identical to August, only compressed into half the time. Considering August and September are historically the weakest months of the year, the strength has been […]
Markets Eye Nvidia & PCE After Powell’s Speech – August 25, 2025
Good morning, Welcome to the last week of summer. Fed Chair Powell set the stage for a September rate cut in his Friday speech, surprising markets and sparking a rally that pulled the major indexes out of the red and into positive territory for the week. The S&P 500, for example, gained +1.52% on Friday […]
Investment Commentary – August 25, 2025
Executive Summary Rising corporate earnings and expectations of lower policy rates are positive for risk-asset markets. Many asset-market valuations are not appealing, but risk-on is likely to persist until earnings are challenged by a weakening economy, or long-term government bond yields potentially break out to the upside (price down/yield up) due to unanchored inflation expectations, increasing […]
Economic Commentary – August 25, 2025
The White House’s intense focus on the monthly labor market revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has muddied the debate over the true health of US employment and its near-term direction. Even without the revisions, there would be serious questions as to the policy implications of the nonfarm payroll numbers. For example, is the […]
Markets Drift Higher, Spotlight on Jackson Hole – August 18, 2025
Good morning, Markets drifted last week but managed to hold modest gains despite conflicting inflation signals. The S&P 500 ended up +0.94% after digesting a heavy flow of economic data, particularly the divergent CPI and PPI reports. This week is shaping up to be one of watching and waiting. The U.S. macro calendar is light, […]