Summer Friday’s Are Back – May 30, 2025
Good morning, Another busy week in the tariff headline business—including this morning at 8 am ET, when Trump said China violated its agreements with the U.S., sending Futures down -0.5%. Now, at week’s and month’s end, we find ourselves more or less where we started. Trump’s tariffs remain in place, and businesses are no more […]
Less Bite – May 27, 2025
Good morning, On Friday morning – four long days ago – the White House announced a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1. The market didn’t love it: the S&P 500 opened down -1% and closed off -.67%. Fast forward to this morning – after news that the start date has been pushed to […]
Economic Commentary – May 27, 2025
Congress is on Memorial Day holiday until June 3 (yes, they do get better benefits than most people!), although returning to their districts and (maybe) meeting with constituents may be anything but a holiday for Representatives and Senators this year. Emotions continue to run high over the economic provisions of the House-passed tax and spending bill, […]
Breaking Down the House’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”: What It Means for Taxpayers
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® May 22, 2025 – In a dramatic overnight session on May 22, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (H.R. 1) by a single vote (215–214). This sweeping legislation, championed by President Donald Trump, aims to reshape the nation’s tax landscape, with significant implications […]
So Much For Bad News Moratorium – May 23, 2025
Good morning, So far this week, and somewhat predictably, the S&P 500 has pulled back modestly—call it a breather after the explosive six-week rebound that followed the “Tariff Tantrum” and its 20% plunge. The index is off about 2% for the week, and volatility has cooled back toward more normal levels. Not so in the […]
Financial advisors taking little mind of Moody’s US downgrade
We finally received the details on the scope of the Trump Administration Tariffs, and it’s beyond market consensus. Risk markets currently do not like the announcement, with stock futures currently down and the NASDAQ leading markets lower. Copper and oil are also falling in post-market trading, suggesting concerns about dimmer growth prospects. The Asia open seems more muted than the headlines would potentially justify.
Wealth Planning Commentary – May 19, 2025
Legislative Update: Proposed Tax Changes in House Bill The latest version of the House’s proposed legislation, previously known as the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” remains intact, mainly following negotiations during the past week. Highlighted below are key provisions that may impact and are subject to changes: Individual Tax Cuts If the bill is passed in […]
Investment Commentary – May 19, 2025
Executive Summary The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose above 5.00% on an intra-day basis 5/19.25 – which is close to 2023’s cyclical high, triggered, in part, by a weak Treasury bond auction, which signaled the supply of Treasuries due to increasing budget deficits was weighing on the market. The bond market may be starting to […]
Understanding the Difference Between Soft and Hard Economic Data
We finally received the details on the scope of the Trump Administration Tariffs, and it’s beyond market consensus. Risk markets currently do not like the announcement, with stock futures currently down and the NASDAQ leading markets lower. Copper and oil are also falling in post-market trading, suggesting concerns about dimmer growth prospects. The Asia open seems more muted than the headlines would potentially justify.
Economic Commentary – May 19, 2025
Moody’s lowering of the US sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa was not entirely surprising; S&P cut its rating of the US as a borrower from its highest rating of AAA to AA+ many years ago, as did Fitch’s in 2023. (Note: there are ratings of instruments and ratings of borrowers, and both can […]
Light News and Events Could Mean Consolidation This Week? – May 19, 2025
Good morning, Following a week where stocks rallied as if everything trade-related has been resolved (S&P +5.27% / week), we enter this week with a little rain on that parade. Moody’s downgraded U.S. Treasuries on deficit concerns – S&P Futures are off about -1%. Moody’s is the last of the major rating agencies to downgrade, […]
Indicators Have Improved – Clarity Has Not – May 16, 2025
Good morning, For the week, so far, the S&P 500 Index is up +4.59%, and it is on track for the 2nd best week of the year (Futures are pointing up this morning at +.20%). This with federal tariff policy moving somewhat out of the spotlight as the week unfolded. U.S. asset markets have received a […]