Will ACA Plan Enrollees See Premium Relief Soon?
For households enrolled in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace, the new year arrived with a sharp increase in monthly health insurance premiums. Why? Enhanced ACA subsidies expired on December 31, 2025. While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed last summer, introduced sweeping changes to the healthcare landscape, it did not explicitly cancel […]
A Sudden Detour from an Otherwise Orderly Market – January 12, 2026
Good morning, I expected to be writing about last week’s solid market performance, the start of earnings season, and the inflation data due this week—altogether, a market continuing its orderly ascent, led by AI, its adjacent beneficiaries, and the broader economy that increasingly rides their coattails. Instead, that narrative has been abruptly hijacked by the […]
Five Charts for the Week That Was: January 9, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including oil and non farm payroll employment.
Limbo – January 9, 2026
Good morning, December employment data released this morning came in slightly below expectations. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.5%, while other labor indicators were mixed—helping explain the bond market’s collective shrug. In the betting markets, the odds of a January rate cut have fallen to zero, and speculation that December’s cut may have […]
I’m a Wealth Planner: Forget 2026 Market Forecasts and Focus on These 3 Goals for Financial Success
As published on Kiplinger We know the economy is unpredictable, geopolitical events can happen without warning, and markets will do what they do, no matter who predicts what. Here’s how to focus on what you can control. Every January, the financial news landscape is flooded with two things: Articles about canceling unused gym memberships and […]
Equity Market Recap – Stock Market Ends the Year Near All-Time Highs
Monthly Market Summary 2025 began with the stock market hitting new highs in February, only to reverse sharply as trade policy uncertainty triggered a nearly -20% sell-off. However, the sell-off set the stage for one of the strongest recoveries in decades. Fueled by AI enthusiasm, rate cut expectations, strong corporate earnings, and resilient economic growth, […]
Small Cap Performance
Below are the calendar year and annualized returns for our small cap composite portfolio. Calendar Year Returns 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 Small Cap Composite 1,2 +71.7% +4.2% +25.2% -16.8% +52.0% +27.3% Russell 2000 Index2 +12.8% +11.5% +16.9% -20.4% +14.8% +20.0% Annualized Returns Through December 31, 2025 As of 12/31/2025 Q4, 2025 2025 5 […]
December 2025 Recap
Economic Commentary The 2026 Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy The economic trajectory as we exit the year remains constructive, characterized by a fundamental shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy dilemma. The central factor is the broadening disinflationary trend, particularly as shelter inflation eases, which fundamentally alters the Fed’s reaction function. This cooling inflationary backdrop […]
OBBBA in 2026: What Matters and What Doesn’t
With the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025 now fully in effect, the tax and planning framework for 2026 and beyond is clearer. For the ultra wealthy, it’s a boon. For the high wealth taxpayers, the outcome is more mixed. The widely feared expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act did not occur: lower income tax rates and elevated […]
2025 Market Recap: Strong Returns Across Assets, Elevated Valuations, and Falling Rates Set the Stage for 2026
Equities The S&P 500 returned 17.9% in 2025 and ended the year just off an all-time high, capping a 37% recovery from the April lows as the economy and corporate profits proved far more resilient than markets feared from tariffs and geopolitical events. Exuberance of the prospects for Artificial Intelligence was a key aspect of […]
Passing the Baton: What Powers the Economy Into 2026
Welcome to 2026. The traditional image of the baby who brings in the new year seems modestly inappropriate as the US economy enters what, by many measures, represents the 198th month of an economic expansion that started in the third quarter of 2009. There have indeed been quarters of negative growth during this time period, most notably during the spring […]
A Tired but Intact Trend to Start the Year – January 5, 2026
Good morning, Welcome to the new trading year—I hope your holidays were joyous. Few would have expected the year’s opening headlines to be dominated by the capture of Nicolás Maduro and developments in Venezuela. Markets, however, have largely shrugged. Aside from Venezuelan sovereign debt, activity has been limited. Energy markets are seeing increased inquiry, but […]