August 2026 Recap
The Economy and the Federal Reserve The economy moderated in the second quarter, but the underlying picture was healthier than the headline growth rate might suggest. Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. Much of that deceleration reflected lower government spending and a surge in imports rather […]
Summer Ends, the Bullish Tilt Remains – August 31, 2026
Good morning, Welcome to the final Morning Note of Summer 2026—which is difficult to comprehend, frankly. Life seems to be moving faster than ever. Tomorrow marks two years for us in Florida, and I still feel like a newbie. Last week, U.S. equities finished modestly higher, with the S&P 500 gaining +0.48% and the Nasdaq […]
Jackson Hole + Nvidia: The Week’s One-Two Punch – August 24, 2026
Good morning, Last week felt like a rerun of a week in July. U.S. equities posted a broadly negative week, with technology bearing the brunt of the selloff. The Nasdaq fell 2.02%, the Russell 2000 declined 1.60%, and the S&P 500 lost 1.39%. International markets fared somewhat better than the home team: developed markets declined […]
Cooling Inflation, Improving Technology – August 17, 2026
Good morning, Not much happened across the major markets last week. The S&P 500 gained 0.39%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined just one basis point to 4.70%, and the dollar, gold, and oil were similarly quiet. Even Iran faded from the headlines. Most of the country was under a heat dome—and, apparently, so were […]
Risk-On Takes the Baton – August 10, 2026
Good morning, The major equity indices broke out early last week—a move that was perhaps overdue given that we are now two-thirds of the way through an explosive earnings season. The back half of the week delivered a different surprise in the form of a shocking employment report: payrolls declined, average hourly earnings slowed, and […]
Five Charts for the Week that Was: August 7, 2026
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including first time home buyers, housing affordability, gas sales, the “Fed put”, and British business investments.
July 2026 Monthly Markets Update
Executive Summary: July Market Performance In July, global equities were mostly unchanged, though the relative stability masked substantial underlying volatility. The month was marked by a violent unwind of the AI/semiconductor trade, volatility in oil prices as a permanent peace in the Middle East proved elusive, and significant sector rotation. Adding to the volatility and […]
August Begins With Near-Term Momentum Still Risk-Off – August 3, 2026
Good morning, Despite some sharp swings in equities last week, the broader picture—at least in retrospect—looks like a relief rally from the deeply oversold conditions reached in mid-July. The rebound registered beneath the surface, but not strongly enough to shift market momentum from risk-off to risk-on as we enter August—at least not yet. That should […]
Investing Without Solid Footing – July 28, 2026
Good morning, Investing is fundamentally about discounting the future. The clearer that future appears, the easier investing feels. Today, it feels unusually difficult because no one knows what comes next in Iran—whether regarding its nuclear program or its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Few variables have greater influence over the direction of the global […]
Ten Charts for the Week that Was: Webinar Bonus Edition
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty provides 5 economic charts covering topics including first time home buyers, housing affordability, gas sales, the “Fed put”, and British business investments.
Watching the High Bar For Earnings, Inflation and Iran – July 20, 2026
Good morning, With apologies, this morning’s Morning Note will be brief. I am deeply under the weather with some sort of summer ailment—cold, flu, or simply a good old-fashioned beatdown. Speaking of a beatdown, that also describes last week’s action across the major indices, led lower by semiconductors specifically and technology more broadly. It was […]
Location, Location, Taxation: Where You Hold Your Investments Matters as Much as What You Own
When it comes to portfolio construction, we understandably spend a lot of time on asset allocation – deciding how much to carve out for equities, bonds, real estate, and alternatives. It’s a driver of your long-term returns. But there is a second, quieter decision that can quietly boost your portfolio’s bottom line without requiring you […]