Markets Rally as U.S.–Iran Agreement Reopens Strait of Hormuz – June 15, 2026
Good morning, An interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached overnight, with formal signing expected this Friday. In the near term, the most significant element of the deal is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping. “Interim” is the operative word. While the agreement restores the flow of […]
Iran Deal Nearing – Markets Rally – SpaceX Launches – June 12, 2026
Good morning, A momentous event is upon us today—no, not a peace agreement with Iran, but rather the largest IPO in history: SpaceX. Any Morning Note written this morning would be hard-pressed not to mention it, so here are a few Bloomberg highlights to satisfy the curiosity of Elon enthusiasts—or perhaps simply add another layer […]
Correction, Not Conclusion – June 8, 2026
Good morning, Friday’s stronger-than-expected May employment report appeared to have an outsized impact on markets. Following a more than 20% advance in the S&P 500 Index over just three months, some degree of pullback was to be expected. The jobs report served as the catalyst—not the underlying reason—for the S&P 500’s -2.6% decline on Friday. […]
May 2026 Monthly Markets Update
Chips and Geopolitics: May’s Risk On Cocktail Executive Market Summary: May 2026 Stocks Set New Highs as Geopolitical Tensions Ease May was a strong month for equities, with most major indexes setting fresh all-time highs. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 set new highs each week, with the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 also […]
Employment Day and a Market That Refuses to Tire – June 5, 2026
Good morning, Today is Employment Report Day, typically one of the most important and closely watched macroeconomic releases each month. While the AI trade and inflation have been the primary drivers of stock and bond price movements recently, employment data still commands respect—perhaps even more so with less than two weeks remaining before Kevin Warsh’s […]
May 2026 Monthly Letter
Following April’s powerful rebound from the March selloff, markets remained constructive in May, though not quite as euphoric as the month before (see returns chart below). The primary drivers of last month’s gains were continued geopolitical de-escalation and a corresponding shift in investor focus. As concerns surrounding the conflict receded, markets were increasingly able to concentrate on […]
Peace Rumors Lift Markets Into Holiday-Shortened Week – May 26, 2026
Good morning, Following the S&P 500’s 8th straight week of gains, there is at least a hint of peace in the air this morning as markets begin the holiday-shortened week. Futures are higher by roughly +0.70% an hour before the cash market opens. We have heard versions of these accord rumors before; however, one notable […]
Bonds Crack, Stocks Finally Blink – May 18, 2026
Good morning, Equities spent most of last week as a picture of resilience. Bonds around the world, however, began to crack under the weight of rising inflation concerns. By Friday, that divergence became increasingly difficult to ignore. The steady climb in equities — powered by AI enthusiasm, resilient earnings, and a U.S. consumer that continues […]
Bond Markets Send a Warning as Equities Hold Steady – May 15, 2026
Good morning, The notable developments this week have been firmer inflation data and what appear to have been productive U.S.-China meetings — although few would have predicted Taiwan would emerge as the central issue rather than Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the Strait of Hormuz. Through yesterday’s close, the major equity indices were modestly higher for […]
Bond Markets Send a Warning as Equities Hold Steady – May 13, 2026
Good morning, The notable developments this week have been firmer inflation data and what appear to have been productive U.S.-China meetings — although few would have predicted Taiwan would emerge as the central issue rather than Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the Strait of Hormuz. Through yesterday’s close, the major equity indices were modestly higher for […]
Markets Remain Resilient Heading Into Inflation Reports and China Meeting – May 11, 2026
Good morning, The U.S. and Iran appeared to move further away from a diplomatic resolution over the weekend. Yet markets are largely nonplussed this morning, with futures trading roughly flat after recovering from modest overnight weakness. Despite headlines suggesting a peace deal remains elusive, equity traders have continued to price energy lower since the start […]
April 2026 Monthly Markets Update
Executive Summary: April 2026 Stocks rebounded on ceasefire headlines, with numerous broad indices setting record highs. The rally erased all of March’s losses and was powered by Growth and semiconductor stocks. Bond markets were quiet on the surface but active underneath. Treasury yields moved higher across the yield curve, but high-yield spreads tightened, erasing nearly […]