Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
March 19, 2024 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia to discuss her market perspective and how The Fed in the US will act later this week. Jeanette touched upon commercial real estate, CPI and jobs numbers in her discussion. Listen here.
More Correction Into The Ides of March? Probably
March 11, 2024 Good morning, Last week, we heard from Fed Chair Powell reiterating his patient stance in front of Congress, noting that while rate cuts are expected later this year, additional evidence of disinflationary trends is necessary first. The first evidentiary data for J Powell came Friday morning. The February jobs report was unusually […]
The Rare Mid-Week Day Off
March 7, 2024 Good morning, There isn’t much to add this morning to Monday’s Morning Note. Chair Powell updated the markets with his forward Fed view yesterday and provided no surprises as usual. The lack of any meaningful market move suggests that the market’s forward pricing is finally in line with the Fed’s forward expectations. That only […]
Stiffer Challenges
March 4, 2024 Good morning, The equity market bonfire continued last week, although at a less torrid pace. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up +.95% on the week, with Friday’s +.80% move constituting the bulk of the week’s move. For all the heavy lifting that the large cap growth stocks (Mag 7) have done, […]
February 2024 Monthly Letter
February’s overarching market message: There’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is not Reggie Hammond or Jerome Powell – it is Nvidia. “New” may be arguable to some, after all, NVDA was one of the Magnificent 7 that accounted for all the equity market gains over the first 10 months of last year. […]
Sideways Is Corrective
March 1, 2024 Good morning, Following a torrid first 3 weeks of February, things have simmered down so far this week in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Remember, sideways price action is corrective behavior following steep ascents (or descents in the case of bonds recently). It’s often the pause that refreshes. There is a lot […]
Finishing February
February 26, 2024 Good morning, Nvidia helped propel the tech-heavy equity indices to modest new all-time highs last week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained +1.66% on the week. The equity market melt-up, led by large cap tech companies, continues in the face of higher yields on the short end of the treasury curve last […]
Crazy Good
February 22, 2024 Good morning, Stocks traded down for 6 of yesterday’s 6.5 hour trading session on concerns that Nvidia’s quarterly results (announced after the close) would fall short of impossibly high expectations. That and the latest Federal Reserve minutes show officials are in no rush to cut interest rates. With only minutes left in […]
All The Spotlights Are On Nvidia
February 20, 2024 Good morning, I hope you had a nice extended weekend. Although it feels like ancient history already, last week brought us higher and stickier inflation data, which translated to higher yields (lower bond prices). Stock prices bounced around for most of the week, pulled down by the higher yields but pushed up […]
Markets Recalibrating – AKA Correction
February 15, 2023 Good morning, Recall late last year’s concern that the bond market had rallied, perhaps too much, and priced in Fed rate cuts all year long beginning in March. Leading the concerned camp was the Federal Reserve itself. Tuesday morning’s January CPI (Consumer Price Index – a key inflation indicator) rose more than […]
Why Did Stocks Drop Yesterday?
It’s Not Because of What You May Think By John Lau February 14, 2024 – Stocks dropped sharply yesterday when the CPI numbers came in “warmer than expected”. But yesterday’s CPI did not really show any signs of reversal on disinflation. Instead, it simply reminded us that the S&P 500 at 5,000 is priced for […]
Continues Until It Doesn’t
February 12, 2024 Good morning, Futures are largely unchanged this morning as we start the second week of February. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up +1.37% last week and is trading at fresh all-time highs. It has broken through the round number barrier of 5000 and is doing so in the face of higher […]