Threading The Needle?
June 6, 2024 Good morning, Weeks ago, amid the March correction, we talked about the market message at that time being constructive in the short-term (wks./mos.). So far, so good. It has not been a barn-burner rally, just a gradual move up and to the right (more right than up) on most major global equity […]
Maybe The Shortest Note On Record – Early Doldrums
June 3, 2024 Good morning, This month begins with the Fed in its quiet period, and stock and bond investors already counting down to the next Fed meeting nine days away. There is one key economic data dump between now and then – Friday morning’s May employment report. If Friday’s number is not rogue, and is […]
Another Quiet One?
May 28, 2024 Good morning, Following a quiet week – the S&P 500 Index was virtually unchanged on the week (+0.03%) – and a long holiday weekend, investors are beginning this holiday shortened week with a slight kick in their step. Both equity futures and Treasuries are trading slightly higher in the pre-market. That continues […]
A Pleasant Interruption To The Calm
May 23, 2024 Good morning, When I said quiet week in Monday’s Morning Note, I didn’t expect the markets to be this quiet. The S&P 500 Index (SPX – cash market NY) and its 24-hr sibling, the S&P 500 Futures contract (SPA – commodities market Chicago), have traded within a few points of last week’s close for […]
Dark Speck Way Out On The Horizon
May 20, 2024 Good morning, This week should be a quiet one with no U.S. economic data releases of consequence. There are plenty of Fed speakers trying to make headlines of their own this week, but with markets currently pricing in between 1-2 rate cuts by year-end, market movement is likely immune to Fed speak […]
You Go, David!
May 16, 2024 Good morning, Even though it is only Thursday morning, the important government economic data releases for the week are behind us. Investors had been prepared for another volatile week since the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) top the list of key inflation data points that the Fed has […]
April 2024 Monthly Letter
The following is your April 2024 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC Monthly Performance Report. With the benefit of seeing the first 4 days of trading in May, I can suggest that April was simply a correction for stocks and bonds. By definition, a correction is a pause in the prevailing bullish or bearish market trend. […]
A Big Data Week
May 13, 2024 Good morning, Last week, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) casually climbed +1.85% in what was a key-data-deprived week. This month’s key inflation data is on the docket this week with Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the first inflation data since the last Fed meeting, […]
Labor Cooling Was A Breadth of Fresh Air
May 6, 2024 Good morning, Last Friday morning’s cool, but not cold, April Nonfarm Payrolls report was a breadth of fresh air for stocks and bonds. Payrolls grew in April by the least in six months. The unemployment rate rounded up to 3.9%, the highest level since 2022. There seemed to be labor market coolness everywhere […]
Much Ado …
May 2, 2024 Good morning, In a week full of big market news events with some of the most important company earnings announcements, an FOMC meeting, and April’s employment numbers, yesterday’s Fed press conference following the FOMC meeting was the most widely anticipated event of them all. However, looking at the market’s reaction to Chair […]
Cognitive Dissonance? I Don’t Think So – Just Disconcerting
April 29, 2024 Good morning, You could hear the collective sigh of relief in most markets Friday morning as the PCE Price Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures) increased +0.3% in March, about the same as February, and matching the consensus estimate (most importantly). It was an all-clear sign, early Friday morning, for equities to price in Microsoft (MSFT) and […]
Sticky Here, There, and Everywhere
April 25, 2024 Good morning, We will assume this month’s steep sell-off is only a correction until the technical damage begins to invade the medium- and longer-term market indicators. Thus far, there has been plenty of technical damage from all the selling, but it has been contained in the short-term indicators. In fact, short-term sentiment […]