The New Year
January 3, 2022 Good morning, Happy and Healthy New Year wishes to all, and welcome back. Given the long break, let’s do a quick review of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) last year in bold strokes and then look ahead. A year ago tomorrow, the SPX set its all-time high at 4818. On October […]
Yesterday’s Take-Away: Recession More Likely
December 19, 2022 Good morning, With the major market events of the month now largely behind us, expect financial markets to now shift into holiday mode. Let’s give the current rally the benefit of the doubt and a chance to muster a reasonably common Santa Claus rally over the next two weeks. However, I’m beginning […]
Yesterday’s Take-Away: Recession More Likely
Good morning, Yesterday’s +50 bps rate hike by the Fed and its slightly higher terminal rate expectation (5.0% to 5.1%) for next year was not a real surprise to anyone. The S&P 500 was off -.60% on the day, likely reflecting some disappointment that the Fed was not a little nicer (less hawkish) when talking […]
A Good Number
December 13, 2022 Good morning, With apologies, I was off by a day yesterday. The much-anticipated CPI comes out today and the Fed’s meeting decision is tomorrow. So, today is a big day (part 1). The equity market is anything but quiet ahead of this morning’s number. Yesterday’s rally (S&P up +1.43%) continued overnight and […]
Just A Little PPI Fuss
December 9, 2022 Good morning, The light eco-data week that I suggested might translate into a quiet market week this week was clearly wrong. The light data part was right, but the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 are down, so far this week, -2.64%, -3.30%, and -3.92%, respectively. International Indexes are off too, […]
November 2022 Monthly Letter
For November, equity markets continued their recovery from October’s lows. The U.S. market in S&P 500 terms (+5.59%), was easily beaten by both the International Developed market and Emerging market Indexes (+11.28% and +14.85%, respectively) for the month. International Indexes are not as heavily exposed to technology as the U.S. indexes, and technology lagged all […]
Buy Rumor / Sell News
December 7, 2022 Good morning, Buy the rumor / Sell the news apparently still works … in China. The announcement of a widespread relaxation in Covid rules and restrictions last night resulted in their market closing sharply lower on the day. Recall the November optimism over an end to Covid-zero policies, which helped propel Chinese […]
Another Impressive Outing Into A Quiet Week
December 5, 2022 Good morning, It’s hard to criticize a market that absorbs as negative a data surprise as last Friday’s November employment release. Recall the -1.5%+ gap decline in Futures Friday morning on the jobs data print. The market opened down at those levels, but around mid-day, it began steadily climbing into the afternoon […]
Let The Dreamer’s Dream
December 2, 2022 Good morning, From Wednesday’s MN: “Except for the true dreamers, few expect Jerome Powell to lighten his hawkish posture.” Well, let the Dreamer’s dream because JP did slightly soften his position from a month ago, and we know it took markets by surprise because the market reaction seemed much greater than the […]
A Pause That Refreshes?
November 30, 2022 Good morning, Unrest in China this past weekend was a sufficient catalyst to trigger some profit taking on Monday with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) down -1.5% on the day. There was little follow-through selling yesterday, which is a good sign that perhaps the forces of demand supporting our rally haven’t left […]
Stiff Global Headwinds This Morning
November 28, 2022 Good morning, I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving. It’s back to normal this week following the holiday and markets are being greeted by a stiff global headwind amid growing unrest in China over Covid restrictions. Futures are off about -.75% pre-market on supply-side risk concerns. Most markets around the world […]
Aha!
November 23, 2022 Good morning, From a technical perspective, bond yields declined again yesterday, and stocks reacted in kind by jumping up +1.36% on the S&P 500 Index. The S&P closed above 4000 again after being repelled from that round number resistance zone last week. (see the Bloomberg chart below for reference). The big bad 200 […]