Where Is It Rallying To?
January 22, 2024 Good morning, Last week’s economic data eased some recession concerns, eased market expectations for March rate cuts, and, on Friday, decoupled the direction of equity prices from the direction of bond prices for the first time in almost 3 months. Bonds were down hard last week, off almost -1%, which is a […]
Correction #2
January 18, 2024 Good morning, In December, we talked about a battle between narratives that is developing early this year. That battle between the bond market investors, pricing in rate cuts at every Fed meeting this year beginning in March, and the Fed, who think the market’s easing schedule is too dramatic, began early this […]
The Fed Pushes Back
January 16, 2024 Good morning, For the first two weeks of the year, stock and bond market prices have moved sideways and traders are still hunting for that elusive 2024 investment theme – apart from the conviction that central banks are going to slash rates. That overarching conviction took a hit over the weekend when […]
Quieter Market / Gundlach Highlights
January 11, 2023 Good morning, The equity market has worked steadily higher so far this week, erasing much of last week’s decline. The S&P 500 Index is sitting right on top of its all-time high. Volatility is off its peak and things have quieted down from that blistering year-end pace. Market wise, there isn’t much […]
Strong Tapes Are Why First Corrections Are Normally Light
January 8, 2024 Good morning, The first week of the year was a down one for stocks, bonds, oil, and gold. Only the dollar and volatility moved higher. The S&P 500 Index was off -1.52% for the first down week since October. Yikes, that’s a long stretch and that sentence underscores the technical strength the […]
Meeting Notes Had No Effect On The Gap
January 4, 2024 Good morning, Following a blistering last two months of the year, with oversold sirens blaring, investors of all kinds were bracing for a correction to welcome in the new year. Perhaps that’s why the -1.36% decline on the S&P 500 Index so far this year feels so much worse than its absolute […]
Probably Ahead of Itself
January 2, 2024 Good morning, I hope your holidays were special and that your Happiest New Year is ahead for you. The stock and bond markets ended 2023 with 9 straight weeks of a rally driven primarily by the Fed’s pivot from a tightening to a neutral bias. The markets have translated the Fed’s mid-December […]
Just A One Off … For Now
December 21, 2023 Good morning, The equity market threw investors a curve ball yesterday. With only 90 minutes left in the trading day, the S&P 500 was predictably up +0.5% with bonds enjoying another intra-day rally of their own. And then, without any obvious catalyst (headline, company announcement, data release), S&P 500 Futures plunged -2% […]
Mallon FitzPatrick on FA Magazine
January 8, 2024 – Principal and Managing Director, Mallon FitzPatrick was featured in Financial Advisor Magazine to discuss ‘Supreme Court Weighs Giving Green Light To Wealth Tax.’ “If the Supreme Court upholds the constitutionality of a tax on accumulated foreign earnings, then it could be interpreted as a tax on unrealized income,” FitzPatrick said. “Republicans are concerned that an […]
Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Daybreak Australia
January 7, 2024 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Bloomberg Daybreak Australia to discuss her key takeaways from the US jobs data and outlook for the US economy. “The jobs report was a good jobs report,” says Garretty. “The wage growth was a little bit hotter than expected, but the Fed has said all along […]
Jeanette Garretty on Yahoo! Finance
December 27, 2024 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Yahoo! Finance to discuss holiday retail sales. “The Trends seen in recent consumer spending patterns and the data that may serve as a ‘check engine light’ in 2024,” says Garretty. “There is very little… economic evidence that consumer sentiment directly feeds into those near-term spending patterns […]
Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Radio
December 21, 2024 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia to discuss the US economic outlook. “I think it’s a point that we have long wanted to be at a point of actually greater certainty about what the outlook is for basic economic conditions,” says Garretty. “But there is a third inflection point going […]