Jumping Ahead
November 6, 2023 Good morning, That was quite a rally last week in stocks and bonds (but not commodities). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) jumped +5.85% and was the weakest major U.S. index on the week. International indexes were not able to keep pace with the SPX, however. There were several reasons for the strong […]
A Spark
November 2, 2023 Good morning, Yesterday’s FOMC decision surprised no one. The Fed left its target range for the funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%. The only noteworthy change to the statement was the inclusion of tighter financial conditions, in addition to tighter credit conditions, acknowledging higher bond yields. In his presser, Chair Powell continued […]
How Advisors Can Help Clients Solve The Roth 401(k) Puzzle
November 2, 2023 – Principal and Managing Director, Mallon FitzPatrick was featured in Financial Advisor Magazine discussing ‘How Advisors Can Help Clients Solve The Roth 401 (k) Puzzle.’ “The mega backdoor Roth can be a prudent strategy” FitzPatrick said. “Wait a month [after the initial contribution] and then move the funds.” Read the full piece here.
Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia
November 1, 2023 – Chief Economist and Managing Director, Jeanette Garretty appeared on BloombergDaybreak: Australia to discuss her outlook for the US economy as investors await the November Fed Rate decision. “I think that what they’re going to do is they’re going to come out and say, ‘we continue to watch the data and they will allude in […]
Stuart Katz on CNBC Street Signs Asia
October 30, 2023 – Chief Investment Officer, Stuart Katz appeared with Will Koulouris on CNBC Street Signs Asia to discuss the outlook on emerging markets. “I think it’s all about time horizon and recognizing that there are opportunities to access performance in different markets. And you know, there’s an uneven economic recovery in China,” says Katz. “We believe many investors have taken a too narrow, pessimistic view […]
Cautious Even In the Face of a Bounce
October 30, 2023 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index (SPX), down -2.54% last week, its third down week in a row, will likely be down for its third month in a row tomorrow (four months in a row is a real rarity). On Friday, SPX closed down -10.7% from its July 27th high, officially putting […]
Bears Gain Upper Hand On Failure Of Support Zone
October 26, 2023 Good morning, Although stocks valiantly tested their all-important line (zone) of support several times in the past two weeks, S&P 500 Index (SPX) support at 4200 failed yesterday when the index closed at 4187, down -1.43% on the day. A chartist (one of many fields of study within technical analysis) would tell […]
Moment of Truths – Indeed
October 23, 2023 Good morning, Few investors were surprised by the market selloff on Friday (SPX – 1.26%). Traders around the world reduce risk going into the weekends when markets are closed and there is war in the air. Friday’s action capped a difficult week for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was […]
Bond Yields Are Getting Awfully Heavy For Stocks To Carry
October 19, 2023 Good morning, There is a lot of head scratching in the fixed income markets as to why yields are climbing like a run-away freight train. On Tuesday, bonds plunged again, pushing the US two-year yield to its highest level since 2006. There are a variety of possible reasons – exponentially growing debt […]
Week Ahead
October 16, 2023 Good morning, Markets do not discount the loss of life. It is called a bloodless process for a reason. My Morning Note is all about the behavior of markets and sometimes I miss the forest for the trees writing it. With apologies, my deepest sympathies go out to all my friends, their […]
Awful Headlines
October 9, 2023 Good morning, The events in the Middle East are dominating headlines and have impacted financial markets to a reasonable degree. Buying crude is the knee-jerk response whenever tensions rise in the region, and sure enough oil is up sharply on the day. However, that market response isn’t as significant as that of […]
At Least The Sentiment Setup Is In Place
October 5, 2023 Good morning, The S&P 500 Index’s 8% decline from its July 31st high has had an unfamiliar companion – at least for the past 25 years – rising bond yields. For much of the past quarter century, rising bond yields have been bullish for stocks because it meant deflationary forces were becoming […]