Understanding the Difference Between Soft and Hard Economic Data
We finally received the details on the scope of the Trump Administration Tariffs, and it’s beyond market consensus. Risk markets currently do not like the announcement, with stock futures currently down and the NASDAQ leading markets lower. Copper and oil are also falling in post-market trading, suggesting concerns about dimmer growth prospects. The Asia open seems more muted than the headlines would potentially justify.
Economic Commentary – May 19, 2025
Moody’s lowering of the US sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa was not entirely surprising; S&P cut its rating of the US as a borrower from its highest rating of AAA to AA+ many years ago, as did Fitch’s in 2023. (Note: there are ratings of instruments and ratings of borrowers, and both can […]
Light News and Events Could Mean Consolidation This Week? – May 19, 2025
Good morning, Following a week where stocks rallied as if everything trade-related has been resolved (S&P +5.27% / week), we enter this week with a little rain on that parade. Moody’s downgraded U.S. Treasuries on deficit concerns – S&P Futures are off about -1%. Moody’s is the last of the major rating agencies to downgrade, […]
Indicators Have Improved – Clarity Has Not – May 16, 2025
Good morning, For the week, so far, the S&P 500 Index is up +4.59%, and it is on track for the 2nd best week of the year (Futures are pointing up this morning at +.20%). This with federal tariff policy moving somewhat out of the spotlight as the week unfolded. U.S. asset markets have received a […]
Economic Commentary – May 12, 2025
The economic news starts to get interesting on Tuesday, and will continue from there, kicked off by the Consumer Price Numbers for April. It will be a long wait for perhaps the most substantive information on the impact of tariffs — the second quarter earnings reports, which will start in July— but hard data for the […]
Investment Commentary – May 12, 2025
Executive Summary Last week, the markets closed on a cautious note, with both stocks and bonds fluctuating amid anticipation of renewed trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. Investors showed restraint, avoiding riskier positioning amid speculation that, while the upcoming discussions between Chinese and American officials might mark a diplomatic thaw, a meaningful agreement […]
Wealth Planning Commentary – May 12, 2025
Preliminary Insights into House Tax Bill This weekend, the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee released an initial draft of its proposed tax legislation. The primary focus of this draft is to address the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that expire at the end of this year. This proposal is […]
Sino-American Trade Detente – May 12, 2025
Good morning, Equity markets are rallying sharply this morning, with Futures up more than 3%, following the weekend’s trade détente between the United States and China. Everyone seems to love curbs on tariffs that did not exist 6-weeks ago. The suspension of most recently implemented tariffs has brought trade policy expectations closer to the more […]
A Bear Market Rally or Something Better – May 9, 2025
Good morning, An abbreviated note this morning – I am attending a two-day investor conference for one of our private investment companies. Recall my “Concession” Morning Note last Friday describing what I believe is a brief period of headline imbalance until the end of the 90-day tariff freeze. The imbalance tilts toward good news since […]
Small Cap Performance
Below are the calendar year and annualized returns for our small cap composite portfolio. Calendar Year Returns 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 Small Cap Composite 1,2 +4.2% +25.2% -16.8% +52.0% +27.3% Russell 2000 Index2 +11.5% +16.9% -20.4% +14.8% +20.0% Annualized Returns Through Q1, 2025 As of 3/31/2025 Q1, 2025 1 Year 5 Years Inception Annualized3 […]
When Should You Take Social Securtity?
May 6, 2025 For wealthy individuals and couples, Social Security might appear to be a smaller component of the overall wealth plan. However, overlooking its nuances could mean leaving value on the table long-term. Let’s discuss considerations for optimizing your Social Security benefits, ensuring this component of your retirement works hardest for you. Social Security […]
Client Testimonials – Avi Deutsch
Testimonials provided by current clients of Robertson Stephens. Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other customers and are no guarantee of future performance or success. “Avi and his team have functioned as a private office for me, extending my capacities by managing my personal wealth and advising me on anything finance-related. Whenever I […]