Shafts & Stairs
September 29, 2021 Good morning, At the market close yesterday afternoon, with the S&P 500 Index off ~2% on the day, it was also down 4.25% from its all time high set earlier this month. Although the down-5%-from-its-high threshold has been broached once, intra-day in the Evergrande sell-off last Monday, this bull market has still […]
Bumpy
September 28, 2021 Good morning, I didn’t think I would be writing this morning, but it’s still September, the VIX jumped up overnight as did Treasury yields and Oil. Not good for stocks or bonds – so, here I am. Overnight Futures (the S&P 500 kind) are off 1% an hour before the cash market […]
Yields Continue to Rise
September 27, 2021 Good morning, Up until only a few hours ago, hopes for a happy start to the last week of September were running high. However as the U.S. investor crowd has coffee’d up, hope has faded and the chances of getting out of this month in positive territory are not looking good at […]
Oh Those Sophomores
September 24, 2021 Good morning, The last day of a volatile week looks to kickoff on a down note. For the week so far, Monday’s selloff and the ensuing rally have left the index within a few basis points of where it started the week – up a little on the week if you use […]
Last Micro Day – I Hope
September 23, 2021 Good morning, I’m sure you’re growing a little tired of Morning Notes four days in a row. But it’s only because Monday was the worst day since May, both in terms of the drop in the S&P 500 and the rise in the VIX (Volatility Index) – a combination that tends to […]
Fed Day
September 22, 2021 Good morning, Yesterday’s market action continued to look like a correction instead of something worse. However, this correction does not seem to appear in the rear view mirror yet. All eyes will be on the Fed and its Fed statement today – will they add “international risks” without naming China as a […]
Correction-Like Is Comforting
September 21, 2021 Good morning, When the market is in free-fall as it was yesterday morning, the decline is quickly extrapolated in investors’ minds and the fear factor leads to – this is something worse than a correction. A global pandemic, a Lehman moment, a bubble bursting – the initial moments of the last three […]
Made in China
September 20, 2021 Good morning, It appears this morning that we will not get through September unscathed. Investor angst over China’s real estate sector seems to be the final straw that breaks investor complacency with this market’s wall of worry; reduced Fed stimulus (tapering), the uncertainty over the outlook for the $4 trillion economic agenda […]
The Seasonal Data Is Favorable
September 17, 2021 Good morning, It’s pretty quiet out there this morning following yesterday’s intraday selloff and rebound. Futures are off a smidge 60 min before the open with no economic data coming out before then. Note however, it is a quarterly option expiry day today and funny things can happen on triple witching days. […]
Appears
September 15, 2021 Good morning, September is really earning its malcontent reputation this year, and we’re only half way through. So far this month, when the opening bell has rung, the bears have come out to play. Overnight equity futures have been up every day this month except one and in each case, the S&P cash […]
Feel Is Not Real – Part II
September 13, 2021 Good morning, The S&P 500 was down each day last week with Friday’s decline accounting for half of the week’s damages. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was off -1.71% and what I called a pause last week turned into what felt like a grand mal correction on Friday. The feel […]
Macro Through Micro Lens
September 9, 2021 Good morning, First, thank you to so many of you for your “feel better” messages and, for sharing some non-covid virus stories of your own. Hugely helpful to me. Let’s get a little micro today and see how that may fall into the macro picture. The S&P 500 Index was lower for a […]