Short & Sweet & Maybe
October 13, 2021 Good morning, This week truly gets going this morning with the official start of earnings season and the release of inflation’s CPI. Persistent, mildly elevated volatility has dampened index performance for the past two relatively news-free days – the S&P 500 is off about 1 percent for Mon/Tue. JPM’s earnings release early […]
Half A Holiday
October 11, 2021 Good morning, The cash bond market is closed today for the holiday – banks are closed, equity exchanges are open. That said, you would think it unlikely that equities would be derailed today by rising Treasury yields. However, bond futures are trading and are pointing to higher yields up and down the […]
B-side or Better?
October 8, 2021 Good morning, Following the theme of Wednesday’s note: was yesterday’s very broad, globally strong rebound rally the start of a Q4 rally, or the B-side of the recent spike in volatility. I suspect those two drivers are not mutually exclusive but I would attribute more to the backside of volatility than start […]
Inflation Scares Do Toll On Equities
October 6, 2021 Good morning, Inflation! It rumbles on and has been the singular focus of European markets overnight, with a rise in inflation breakevens over there moving spectacularly higher, powered specifically by natural gas. Overnight headlines seem like they are straight out of the 1970’s – soaring any prices, rising yields, and even a […]
Still a Balance of Evidence Process
October 4, 2021 Good morning, Friday’s 1% gain in the S&P 500 wasn’t a bad way to start the quarter. However, the market is a forward looking beast with no memory, so what’s ahead? It’s payroll week and it is starting this morning with yields up slightly on the US-10yr at 1.47% (having settled down […]
Welcoming Q4 With Open Arms
October 1, 2021 Good morning, That was blistering. Recall that only two weeks ago we were commenting on how mild September was for the markets and, half way through that it was only basis points off its all time high set on the first days of the month. Two weeks later and we’re looking at […]
Shafts & Stairs
September 29, 2021 Good morning, At the market close yesterday afternoon, with the S&P 500 Index off ~2% on the day, it was also down 4.25% from its all time high set earlier this month. Although the down-5%-from-its-high threshold has been broached once, intra-day in the Evergrande sell-off last Monday, this bull market has still […]
Bumpy
September 28, 2021 Good morning, I didn’t think I would be writing this morning, but it’s still September, the VIX jumped up overnight as did Treasury yields and Oil. Not good for stocks or bonds – so, here I am. Overnight Futures (the S&P 500 kind) are off 1% an hour before the cash market […]
Yields Continue to Rise
September 27, 2021 Good morning, Up until only a few hours ago, hopes for a happy start to the last week of September were running high. However as the U.S. investor crowd has coffee’d up, hope has faded and the chances of getting out of this month in positive territory are not looking good at […]
Oh Those Sophomores
September 24, 2021 Good morning, The last day of a volatile week looks to kickoff on a down note. For the week so far, Monday’s selloff and the ensuing rally have left the index within a few basis points of where it started the week – up a little on the week if you use […]
Last Micro Day – I Hope
September 23, 2021 Good morning, I’m sure you’re growing a little tired of Morning Notes four days in a row. But it’s only because Monday was the worst day since May, both in terms of the drop in the S&P 500 and the rise in the VIX (Volatility Index) – a combination that tends to […]
Fed Day
September 22, 2021 Good morning, Yesterday’s market action continued to look like a correction instead of something worse. However, this correction does not seem to appear in the rear view mirror yet. All eyes will be on the Fed and its Fed statement today – will they add “international risks” without naming China as a […]