Correction-Like Is Comforting
September 21, 2021 Good morning, When the market is in free-fall as it was yesterday morning, the decline is quickly extrapolated in investors’ minds and the fear factor leads to – this is something worse than a correction. A global pandemic, a Lehman moment, a bubble bursting – the initial moments of the last three […]
Made in China
September 20, 2021 Good morning, It appears this morning that we will not get through September unscathed. Investor angst over China’s real estate sector seems to be the final straw that breaks investor complacency with this market’s wall of worry; reduced Fed stimulus (tapering), the uncertainty over the outlook for the $4 trillion economic agenda […]
The Seasonal Data Is Favorable
September 17, 2021 Good morning, It’s pretty quiet out there this morning following yesterday’s intraday selloff and rebound. Futures are off a smidge 60 min before the open with no economic data coming out before then. Note however, it is a quarterly option expiry day today and funny things can happen on triple witching days. […]
Appears
September 15, 2021 Good morning, September is really earning its malcontent reputation this year, and we’re only half way through. So far this month, when the opening bell has rung, the bears have come out to play. Overnight equity futures have been up every day this month except one and in each case, the S&P cash […]
Feel Is Not Real – Part II
September 13, 2021 Good morning, The S&P 500 was down each day last week with Friday’s decline accounting for half of the week’s damages. For the week, the S&P 500 Index was off -1.71% and what I called a pause last week turned into what felt like a grand mal correction on Friday. The feel […]
Macro Through Micro Lens
September 9, 2021 Good morning, First, thank you to so many of you for your “feel better” messages and, for sharing some non-covid virus stories of your own. Hugely helpful to me. Let’s get a little micro today and see how that may fall into the macro picture. The S&P 500 Index was lower for a […]
Sleepy Start to the New Season
September 7, 2021 Good morning, Apologies for my radio silence last week, and the skipped note Friday with no explanation. Playing Hooky? – I wish. I woke up Thursday morning to a stiff fever and what felt like a king-flu concentrated all in my skull. Due to the intensity – chills like you read about, […]
When Feel Is Not Real
September 1, 2021 Good morning, Hello September – What! How is that even possible? Time is just flying. There are four months to go until year-end, and now bulls feel emboldened while bears are hushed. The S&P 500 posts a record every four days (Bloomberg), while each uncertainty the market faces turns out to be […]
Another Victory Lap for JBTD
August 30, 2021 Good morning, Friday’s Jackson Hole messaging was obviously well received by the markets. There was no news to speak of in the speech but the fear of a hawkish surprise was dispelled. It’s axiomatic to the markets: uncertainty removed -> market up. The S&P 500 Index was up .87% on the day […]
A Look Back
August 27, 2021 Good morning, The long anticipated speech from the Jackson Hole Symposium by Jay Powell hits the tape at 10am ET this morning. A virtual mountain of words have been written about what JP will say. There’s no point in adding to that this morning. Instead, let’s look back at previous tapers and […]
Summer Doldrums
August 25, 2021 Good morning, Did you see that? On Monday the morning note had a hint of a cautionary tone, and later that day the S&P 500 put up another new high, and then another again yesterday! This bull does not suffer fools. Undeterred and moving on – market action overnight has been mixed […]
Cautious – No Change
August 23, 2021 Good morning, Last week’s 50 bps decline (-0.5%) on the S&P 500 index disguised the real correction that transpired in the broader market. The Russel 2000 index (small caps & value), the MSCI EAFE index (international developed market), the MSCI EM index (emerging market), and commodities broadly speaking all suffered corrections 8-10 […]