The Can Isn’t Kicked—But Markets Don’t Care (Yet) – October 3, 2025
Good morning, I was off on Monday, thinking the week might be choppy with a government shutdown, but that things would smooth out by Friday with another can-kick—wrong. It’s Friday, the can hasn’t been kicked, the shutdown shows no end in sight, and yet the market is anything but bumpy—just quietly grinding higher. Market probabilities are usually anchored to […]
Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty on Bloomberg: The Asia Trade
October 2, 2025 – Chief Economist Jeanette Garretty joined Bloomberg: The Asia Trade to discuss the economic impact of the U.S. government shutdown and its potential effects on markets and growth. Watch Jeanette below.
Rate cuts, Trade Deals and Strong Earnings Power Stocks Higher in Q3
By John Lau, CPA, CFP® October 1, 2025 – Major stock indices continued the 2025 rally and surged to new all-time highs in the third quarter as economic growth remained stable, tariff increases were no worse than feared and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, beginning the long-awaited rate-cutting cycle. Markets started the third quarter […]
Small Cap Q3 2025 Commentary
Strong performance Continues! The third quarter supercharged what was already an exceptional year for our small-cap strategy. Since inception, the portfolio has compounded at over 25% annually, a result we’re especially proud of given the environments we’ve navigated. Our record fully incorporates the COVID collapse, the 2022 bear market, and the April sell-off earlier this […]
No Government? No Problem — Markets Push Ahead – September 29, 2025
Good morning, Following a week that was essentially a push — the S&P 500 Index slipped just -0.31% — both stocks and bonds are starting the week higher (futures +0.5%) with less than two days to go before a potential government shutdown. Markets appear just as unfazed by the looming shutdown as they were by […]
Investment Commentary – September 22, 2025
Executive Summary The Fed cut interest rates as expected by 0.25% to 4.25%. The market response was bullish for riskier assets but did not do much for bonds. The bond market was pricing in 3 cuts before year-end, prior to the meeting, and three after, then into next year, the bond market is pricing in […]
Economic Commentary – September 22 2025
Amid the focus last week on the FOMC meeting and the interest rate decision, the threat of a government shutdown wasn’t a dominant issue; there is only so much conflict one can handle at one time. However, the looming deadline for funding the federal government after the current fiscal year ends on September 30 is now […]
Don’t Fight the Tape, Don’t Fight the Fed As Risks Build – September 22, 2025
Good morning, All the major equity indices posted fresh all-time highs last week as the Fed officially launched its easing cycle, confirming expectations of a 25 bps rate cut at each of the final three meetings this year. In market shorthand: the tape is strong, and the Fed is easing. Investors appear to be embracing […]
Three Cuts in Sight – Markets Aligned and Calm – Shutdown Looms – September 19, 2025
Good morning, The highlight of the week was the Fed officially beginning a new easing cycle. On Wednesday, it delivered the expected 25 bps cut, bringing the Fed Funds target range to 4.00–4.25%, with the lower bound (4.00%) serving as the reference point. The Fed’s dot-plot signaled two additional 25 bps cuts before year-end—one at […]
Corporate Bond Trade-Offs: Attractive Income, Limited Cushion
September 17, 2025 – Corporate credit spreads are at levels not seen in decades. Investment-grade credit spreads, which measure how much more a top-rated company pays to borrow compared to the U.S. government, have fallen to 0.77%, a level last seen in 1998 (Figure 1). Historically, the spread is closer to 1.30%, a half percentage […]
Fed Easing vs. Government Shutdown: A Market Balancing Act – September 15, 2025
Good morning, As promised, my monthly letter was completed over the weekend, though it’s still tied up in publishing. You’ll receive it later today once compliance gives the green light. I’m sure this sets some sort of record—and not the kind I’d brag about. It’s Fed week, with Wednesday’s rate decision and dot plot (the […]
The $14 Trillion US Stock Rally is Seeking a Fed Cut Playbook
September 13, 2025 – Chief Investment Officer Stuart Katz shared insights with Bloomberg on how the $14 trillion US stock rally is influencing investor positioning and what it could mean for equities and long-term strategies amid potential Fed rate cuts. Read more here.